盲盒恐惧症

特朗普政府曾考虑要求通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只购买美国政府提供的保险，以获得海军护航。美国国际发展金融公司提议提供再保险支持，但强制性要求尚不明确。

Thursday's Asian stock markets experienced widespread declines, with the Bank of Japan maintaining interest rates unchanged while warning of inflation risks, causing the Nikkei 225 index to fall 2.6%. Surging oil prices and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve weighed on market sentiment, leading to declines in South Korean and Chinese stock markets.

鋼鐵股普遍下跌，鞍鋼股份跌幅達5.81%。國金證券指出春季補庫已結束，終端需求疲軟導致盈利下降。國泰海通證券預測鋼鐵需求將逐步觸底，同時供給市場化出清可能促使行業基本面修復。

US crude oil price increases have clearly benefited five exploration and production companies. According to a KeyBanc Capital Markets report, Murphy Oil and Diamondback Energy are expected to achieve the highest EBITDA growth, at 41% and 35% respectively. Additionally, Magnolia Oil & Gas, EOG Resources, and Talos Energy will also benefit, as rising oil prices have prompted these companies to significantly improve their profitability and cash flow without implementing hedging transactions.

中远海运港口发布2025年业绩，收入增长11%，净利润微增1.1%。尽管总吞吐量上升6.2%，公司股票却下跌超过9%。

芯片股普遍下跌，上海复旦、华虹半導體等均大幅下滑。華虹集團開發7nm技術的消息可能影響其商業模式。多家晶圓代工廠漲價，緣因於地緣政治及供應鏈問題。

Malaysia's February exports grew 10.8% year-over-year, falling short of the expected 13.2%. Exports to China increased 13.2%, while exports to the US surged 42.3%. Imports grew 8.2%, in line with forecasts. The trade surplus was 16.7 billion ringgit, below expectations. The Ministry of Trade warned that the Middle East conflict is increasing global trade uncertainty and advised exporters to leverage free trade agreements to expand markets.

Indian Rupee Falls to Historic Low, Affected by Middle East Tensions and Strong Dollar. Elaborated on soaring oil prices and their pressure on India's economy, especially as energy import dependence exacerbates the current account deficit.

The Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate at 0.75% unchanged due to increased inflation risks stemming from Middle East tensions. Board members expressed concerns about medium to long-term inflation, with expectations that the core consumer price index will reach the 2% target by 2026. Rate hikes will be influenced by spring wage negotiations.

Investors are watching the yen-to-dollar exchange rate potentially breaking through the 160 level, with Japan's stock market and government bond futures declining. The market expects the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates unchanged, but yen weakness and rising oil prices have sparked stagflation concerns, complicating fiscal policy. Experts believe the yen may break through 160 during the central bank meeting, emphasizing that intervention thresholds are high.

周四，黄金价格在亚洲交易时段小幅上涨，尽管受美联储利率不确定性和美国-以色列对伊朗战争的通胀影响，仍远低于关键水平5,000美元/盎司。美国强劲的生产者通胀数据给黄金带来压力，市场预计短期内不会降息，这增加了利率路径的不确定性。其他贵金属也小幅上涨，但近期依然遭遇损失。

Elliott Investment Management在Align Technology Inc建立了重要持仓，计划鼓励其提升股价。目前Align因隱適美產品需求強勁，預計2025年創紀錄營收，但股價漲幅落後標普500指數。

Morgan Stanley believes that if Tesla successfully launches autonomous robotaxis, it will become an underestimated key growth driver. Analysts point out that this business will optimize the autonomous driving model, increase FSD penetration rate, and drive vehicle demand and cash flow. Meanwhile, Tesla has cost advantages in the autonomous driving field, with costs expected to decline to $0.37 per mile by 2035.

The Federal Reserve's decision not to cut rates is viewed by economist Bjegovic as a policy mistake, as he believes rising unemployment and weak economic conditions warrant faster action. He is concerned about persistent high inflation and deterioration in the labor market, warning that these could exacerbate recession risks. He holds a contrarian view to mainstream expectations, emphasizing that CPI is more meaningful than PCE as a reference point.

On Thursday, most Asian currencies rebounded slightly, with the yen stabilizing after the Bank of Japan held rates unchanged, though it remained near its lowest level since 2014. The US dollar retreated, influenced by strong US inflation and the Federal Reserve maintaining rates. Market concerns about Iran war tensions and rising oil prices also impacted currency movements.

國際黃金仍在震盪中調整，市場等待美聯儲決議。儘管地緣局勢緊張且油價上漲限制金價反彈，但整體趨勢看漲。技術面顯示金價有止跌反彈的預期，下方關注4970美元支撐，上方壓力在5020美元附近。交易策略建議逢低看多。

在美伊衝突持續的背景下，能源顧問麥克納利警告油價可能突破2008年金融危機以來的高點，漲幅或達34%。他認為，停火或削弱伊朗威脅是抑制油價的關鍵，但當前均不大可能實現，油價因此將繼續上漲，造成經濟負擔。

美聯儲在最新會議中決定維持利率不變，鮑威爾指出通脹恢復尚需時間，並強調中東局勢的影響尚不確定。儘管失業率變化不大，市場對未來降息預期有限，鮑威爾表示通脹壓力仍需關注。此外，他面臨與司法部的調查，並計劃捍衛美聯儲獨立性。

Aviation stocks declined as Middle East geopolitical conflicts drove up international oil prices, with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China experiencing stock price drops. Multiple domestic airlines have raised fuel surcharges on international routes. Market analysts believe that if the situation improves, the aviation sector may ease, but elevated oil prices could still erode profitability.