On March 24, Goldman Sachs stated that due to surging oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the US economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. Energy price shocks, combined with tightened financial conditions due to Middle East conflicts, and the fading effects of major tax law changes passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius to raise his baseline forecast for year-end unemployment to 4.6%.
Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The firm also expects US GDP growth in the second half of this year to be below trend, with annualized growth expected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to continued disruptions in energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for this year earlier on Monday. The firm stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even increase to three times. #Gate13周年全球庆典
On March 24, Goldman Sachs stated that due to surging oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the US economy entering a recession within the next 12 months has risen to 30%, an increase of 5 percentage points from previous expectations. Energy price shocks, combined with tightened financial conditions due to Middle East conflicts, and the fading effects of major tax law changes passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius to raise his baseline forecast for year-end unemployment to 4.6%.
Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The firm also expects US GDP growth in the second half of this year to be below trend, with annualized growth expected to be between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to continued disruptions in energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for this year earlier on Monday. The firm stated that this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even increase to three times. #Gate13周年全球庆典