Brothers trading US stocks short-term, my advice is very direct: before the Federal Reserve rate decision is released at 2:00 a.m. on the 30th, try not to open new positions casually, especially in the Nasdaq and high-valuation tech stocks. At this kind of timing, it’s easiest to get thrust up and down; even if you guess the direction correctly, you may still get swept out first. Rather than betting on up or down in advance, it’s better to stay in cash and wait for the market to show its stance. The current interest-rate range is 3.50%—3.75%. Market consensus is still that the rate will remain unchanged, but there’s also a possibility of an unexpected 25-basis-point hike. In a Reuters survey of 104 economists, all of them predict that the Fed will hold rates steady this time. Personally, I also lean toward no hike. But what truly determines the market may not be the result itself—it may be the subsequent statement and the press conference. As long as they continue emphasizing inflation, or hint that a rate hike may still be on the table in September, the market can still first rise and then fall. This time, compared with the crypto market, I think the Nasdaq faces a bigger direct impact. Tech-stock valuations are very sensitive to interest rates and US Treasury yields. On top of that, in these days, they’re also colliding with earnings reports from tech giants—so the market is essentially trading both interest rates and earnings at the same time, leaving very little room for error. Crypto will move too, but the transmission is more indirect: the dollar and US Treasuries move first, then the Nasdaq signals, BTC follows risk appetite, and finally altcoins amplify volatility through leverage and liquidations. So my understanding is: the Nasdaq sets the direction, BTC amplifies the sentiment, and altcoins amplify the drawdown. In this situation, going to cash isn’t missing an opportunity—it’s keeping the initiative in your own hands. After the result comes out, seeing how the dollar, US Treasuries, and the Nasdaq move is often more stable than placing a bet in advance. $BTC $ETH $SOL

The most worth revisiting in this trade isn’t how much I ultimately ended up with, but the fact that I almost got ground down like under a millstone and lost patience. The price hovered around 345.75 for a long time, repeatedly pumped higher then dropped back, as if it were deliberately trying to wear down the shorts’ confidence. I wanted to get out a few times before, but in the end I held on—without changing direction impulsively just because of short-term fluctuations. What really kept me holding was that the rebound never managed to break through the previous key level. There seemed to be support at a glance, but the moment it reached the critical area, sell pressure blocked it. Later, the market hit with a sell-off; the price moved to around 213.77. All those seemingly messy moves suddenly connected into one coherent line, and the short thesis was finally confirmed. This outcome corresponds to +2708.93%. Honestly, after you become profitable, it’s easiest to get carried away. But this trade made me understand again: waiting isn’t passive stubbornly holding—it’s confirming that the judgment I made at the start hasn’t been overturned by the chart. When you’re bearish, it’s not the slow pace that scares you; what you fear is getting washed out by your own emotions before you’ve finished the move. $BTC $ETH

When the screen is filled with green candles, it’s most likely that people rush to bottom-fish—and it’s also most likely that someone forgets how to close their short positions. When the price dumped intraday, I first checked how strongly $BILL retraced; I found that the rebound stayed weak all along. After it fell, the support didn’t quickly come back, and the shorts hadn’t exited. Earlier, BILL surged around 0.14088 with relatively low trading volume. The price looked like it was being pushed up, but in reality nobody was willing to keep taking orders. At the time, I advised waiting for the sell pressure to dissipate, and executed the plan to open longs—what I was waiting for was the payout after the price faced pressure at the high. Now the price has reached 0.02402, and the unrealized profit shows +1633.55%; the answer is already laid out on the chart. First, close 80% to lock in results. Set cost protection for the remaining 80%; if it continues to dip, it allows the profit to extend. If it bounces back, it won’t give back the space already secured. Risk control done upfront is called rationality. Cutting losses after you’ve already lost is called a brave severing of the arm. Chasing after a drop is also dangerous—if you didn’t get in, don’t rush to top up. The market doesn’t lack opportunities; what it lacks is patience. $BTC $ETH