Bitcoin (BTC) continues its soft decline from the weekend, with it temporarily trading around $66,380 on March 30, as the situation surrounding the Iran-Iraq war remains unclear. Kalshi again faces a lawsuit in Washington State, in the U.S., as the regulatory storm in prediction markets is expected to escalate. Canada is set to ban cryptocurrency political donations, and the relevant bill has entered its first reading.
Macro Events & Crypto Market Highlights
1、According to CoinDesk, Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown has filed a civil lawsuit against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging that by offering betting services for sports, elections, war, and other events, it violates state gambling and consumer protection laws. The lawsuit has been submitted to the Superior Court of King County, seeking to bar Kalshi from operating locally, recoup residents’ lost funds, and impose civil penalties. This is another regulatory action the company has faced recently; it has already been involved in more than 20 civil lawsuits. Previously, prosecutors in Arizona had brought criminal charges against it, which is considered the first criminal case targeting a prediction market.
The complaint states that Kalshi’s advertisements implied that users could circumvent local laws to place NFL bets, showing it was “knowingly violating regulations.” However, Kalshi said in response that it is a compliance trading platform regulated by the federal government, denies offering war-related markets, and expressed confidence that it will prevail at the legal level.
2、Although Canada has allowed crypto donations since 2019, they were hardly used in the 2021 and 2025 federal elections. Regulators believe that the “pseudo-anonymity” of crypto assets and the difficulty of tracing the source of funds pose potential risks to election transparency, prompting a shift toward a comprehensive ban. It is reported that on March 26, the Canadian government introduced the “Strong and Free Elections Act” (“C-25” bill), which proposes to fully ban the use of crypto assets such as Bitcoin for political donations, and to classify them together with cashier’s checks and prepaid payment instruments as “hard-to-track” forms of funds. The ban covers registered political parties, candidates, campaign teams, and third-party campaign advertising entities, meaning crypto assets will be fully excluded from the federal election financing system. The move follows closely on the heels of the UK’s recent imposition of a temporary ban on crypto political donations, making the trend toward stricter regulation clearly evident.
Under the bill, any crypto donations received in violation of the rules must be returned or otherwise disposed of within 30 days and turned over to the treasury. The maximum penalty can be up to twice the amount of the violation, along with an additional fine of up to $100,000. At present, the bill has entered the first reading stage in parliament.
News Updates
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1、Willy Woo: Traditional on-chain models show Bitcoin’s bottom may be between $46,000 and $54,000
2、OnePay, controlled by Walmart, has added more than ten types of tokens to its crypto services
3、After liquidating part of his position, Huang Licheng added more; total losses have reached $31.30 million
4、Speaker of the Iranian Parliament: The so-called “news” ahead of the market open is just a trap set up to lock in profits
5、Spokesperson of Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: The proposal put forward by the United States through intermediaries is very unreasonable
6、Source: The Senate hearing for Wash, the Fed chair nominee, is likely to be held in the week of April 13 at the fastest
7、Gnosis and Zisk launch an “Ethereum Economic Zone” Rollup framework funded by the Ethereum Foundation
8、CoinList will support OneFootball’s token TGE on April 9
9、Data: Tokens such as SUI, EIGEN, and OPN will see large unlocks this week, with SUI’s unlock value at about $37.20 million
Market Trend
1、Latest Bitcoin news: $BTC continues the weekend’s soft downtrend, temporarily at around $66,380. In the past 24 hours, $120 million has been liquidated, with the main liquidation on long positions;
2、U.S. stocks plunged on March 27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 10% from its February peak, following the Nasdaq Composite Index into a correction. With the Iran-Iraq war entering its fifth week, the S&P 500 Index is also likely to soon follow other U.S. indexes into the same fate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 793 points, down 1.7%. The Nasdaq Composite Index, already in a correction on the 26th, fell 2.1%, down 3.2% on the week, marking the biggest one-week drop since last April. Meta and Micron fell by more than 15% and 11%, respectively. Alphabet and Microsoft also fell by nearly 9% and 7%, respectively. The S&P 500 Index dropped 2.1% last week, ending five consecutive weeks of declines, setting the longest streak of weekly declines in nearly four years. Since March, it is down 7.4%, heading toward its worst month performance since 2022.
（Source: Bitcoin Counter Flow）
3、In the liquidation map for Gate BTC/USDT, using the current 64,425 USDT as the reference: if it drops to around $63,600, the cumulative amount of long-position liquidations will exceed $8 million; if it rises to around $68,325, the cumulative amount of short-position liquidations will exceed $9 million. The liquidation amount for shorts is higher than for longs. It is advised to keep leverage ratios reasonably controlled to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations amid market fluctuations.
（Source: Coinglass）
4、In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows were $1.23 billion, outflows were $1.29 billion, for a net outflow of $60 million.
（Source: Coinglass）
5、In the past 24 hours, contract trading net outflows for $SIREN, $STO, $ONT, $PLAY, $PIPPIN, and others have led, presenting trading opportunities.
Selected Views from X KOLs
Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today was a fairly uneventful day, and you could say we got through the weekend without causing any trouble. The price of $BTC over the weekend has just been maintaining a relatively mild range-bound movement. Although there’s a sense that the war has escalated, it hasn’t been transmitted to Bitcoin over the weekend. This suggests that, aside from institutions, real investors are not paying much attention to the current market behavior. The key point is still to look at how Asian players respond after CME opens on Monday, and what U.S. investors think after the U.S. stock market opens in the evening.”
“Now the impact of the war on oil prices is no longer something we can suppress quickly. Today I saw many global analysts saying that Brent crude could surge to $200. I originally thought that $150 was already hard to reach. If it really gets to $200, then you’d have to start considering rate hikes and a recession, and inflation is expected to bounce back more. Now, the time left after the IEA releases its strategic reserves is probably about three weeks.”
“Not only can we not see any sign of a ceasefire—on the contrary, the trend of the war is getting worse. The Houthis have officially entered the fray. How much longer will the blockade of the Red Sea last? The Middle East has been hit until it seems like it’s yelping. The U.S. has also deployed a large number of troops. If I were Trump, I’d be worried to an unbearable degree too. After the war ends, there’s still tariffs, the Federal Reserve, and midterm elections waiting for him.”
“Coming back to Bitcoin data: the weekend turnover rate continues to decline, and trading volume is also decreasing. This indicates that even though the war has escalated, investors don’t have much interest in switching positions, and there’s no sign of panic. Overall, the positioning structure is pretty normal. The key still is to watch what U.S. stock market investors do after Monday’s open.”
Outlook for Today
1、No major economic and financial data to be released
