Prediction Market

Kalshi and Polymarket face a potential Supreme Court showdown over the legality of prediction markets as inflation rises and stock markets hit record highs. The outcome may redefine how traders hedge economic risks amid conflicting court rulings on their operations.

Polymarket is seeking an additional $400 million in funding after raising $600 million at a $15 billion valuation, which has increased from $9 billion last year. Despite this growth, it still lags behind competitor Kalshi Inc.'s $22 billion valuation.

Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, becomes the first “Tech Bro” Fed chair, closely connected with Silicon Valley giants, and argues that AI can reduce inflation and supports an accommodative monetary policy. His Silicon Valley background could influence the Fed’s interest-rate decisions; expectations for the crypto market are positive, but the risk of conflicts of interest also needs to be considered. His appointment process and future policy direction will affect the U.S. Dollar Index and valuations of Taiwan stocks.

A global exchange has launched Event Contracts, allowing users to bet on Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements over set timeframes. This simplified trading option features low costs and automatic settlement, aimed at easing short-term investment strategies.

Polymarket is seeking to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation, adding to a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange. This funding aims to enhance infrastructure and liquidity for its event-based trading platform, amid ongoing debates over its valuation and market potential.

Charles Schwab is considering introducing prediction markets for financial events amid growing Wall Street interest, while maintaining a focus on wealth management. Regulatory scrutiny is increasing, especially regarding sports and entertainment wagers, highlighted by recent legislation and concerns over insider trading and market manipulation.

Polymarket is seeking a valuation of $12 to $15 billion, in early-stage fundraising discussions; if successful, it could grow tenfold in a short period of time. Competitor Kalshi is also seeking a valuation of more than $10 billion. In addition, Polymarket has teamed up with sports betting giant DraftKings and launched a USDC-backed stablecoin, demonstrating strong market demand and a viable business model.

According to reports, the prediction market platform Polymarket is in talks for a new round of funding totaling $400 million at an estimated valuation of about $15 billion, and its competitor Kalshi is also conducting similar funding talks. Polymarket’s weekly nominal trading volume is $1.9 billion, covering multiple market events, and it offers trading contracts for the outcomes of specific events, indicating the likelihood of IPO markets for technology companies such as OpenAI and SpaceX.

Polymarket is seeking to raise $400 million at a valuation of around $15 billion, following a $600 million investment led by Intercontinental Exchange.

Bitcoin gives back some of its recent gains, trading at $74,240. The RAVE token plunged 95%, prompting a warning about market manipulation. Charles Schwab and Castle Securities are considering entering prediction markets. U.S. stocks rose, and investors are watching the Middle East situation and the earnings season. Market liquidity is low, so a near-term pullback doesn’t need to be overly worrying.

Kalshi traders predict XRP will reach $1.60 in April amid rising demand and significant ETF inflows. With a bullish technical outlook and upcoming regulatory votes, XRP's market dynamics show potential for further gains, despite risks of declining support levels if outcomes are unfavorable.

Tottenham Hotspur this season has surged from Europa League champions all the way to the relegation zone, facing a relegation battle. In the 14 matches without a win, the team has been hit by a series of injuries and a change in head coach, and an ESPN report says that poor passing ability is a key factor. Sunday’s match against Brighton will be a do-or-die game for survival; if they lose, it will seriously affect morale and the standings. Successful survival requires three major conditions, and for a former “pyramid” club, relegation will inevitably cause a major loss.

The Hong Kong SFC warns that prediction markets are speculative and not investment products, lacking regulatory protection. They involve gambling elements, potentially making them illegal. The committee urges the public to differentiate between investment and gambling.

Prediction markets show stark wealth concentration, with 84.1% of Polymarket traders losing money, while just 0.04% hold over 70% of profits. Legislative efforts like the BETS OFF Act aim to regulate betting on sensitive events, as concerns rise over user protections amid the entry of major financial institutions.

DAZN partners with ADI Predictstreet to introduce a blockchain prediction market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Users can engage in real-time predictions, utilizing advanced technology for privacy and scalability, despite regulatory challenges in Europe.

Hong Kong's government has suspended its basketball betting project due to concerns over the rapid growth of prediction markets linked to illegal gambling. With monthly trading volumes rising dramatically, authorities aim to enhance public education and collaborate on measures against gambling.

Hong Kong has suspended the legalization of basketball betting this week, while also planning to launch a study to assess the impact of prediction markets in Hong Kong and their level of adoption. Macie Mak, Commissioner for Home and Youth Affairs in Hong Kong, said that the monthly trading volume of prediction markets has grown from less than $100 million two years ago to more than $13 billion last year, with about 40% related to sports.

Polymarket has initiated an audit of its Builders Program after finding third-party tools that may facilitate insider trading by mimicking successful trades. The review follows scrutiny over potential market abuse linked to these apps.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has appealed a ruling by the state of Nevada banning its event contracts, and the U.S. Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals held oral arguments on April 17, but did not issue an immediate decision after the hearing. The core dispute in the case is whether Kalshi’s event contracts are “swap agreements” that fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), or whether they must be regulated by state-level activity under gambling licensing regimes. Multiple legal experts predict that the case may ultimately be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

In a House hearing, U.S. CFTC Chairman Selig emphasized a “zero-tolerance policy” toward market fraud and manipulation. He responded to questions regarding a $500 million oil futures transaction and said the CFTC is drafting rules to regulate prediction markets. Selig also mentioned a cooperation memorandum of understanding with the SEC to strengthen oversight of digital assets. Given that the CFTC currently has only one commissioner—himself—Selig emphasized operational efficiency and will hire new staff to enhance regulatory capacity.