Polymarket China, Iran "Information Battlefield": Over $500 million in bets, mysterious accounts enter precisely, sparking insider allegations

Summary: Felix, PANews

As the US and Israel jointly launch airstrikes inside Iran, global attention is not only on the smoky battlefield but also on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.

When traditional financial markets react slowly due to weekend closures, Polymarket, with its 24/7 trading feature, becomes an immediate “barometer” for observing geopolitical trends worldwide. However, traders flock to it, trying to profit, and some “insiders” are suspected of insider trading, making huge “national crisis profits.” A global geopolitical event has exposed the “pros and cons” of prediction markets. Over $500 million in high-stakes betting on US-Iran conflict, with some making huge gains and others losing everything Since the attack began, Polymarket has seen a surge of new contracts covering topics from ceasefire timelines to whether the Iranian regime will fall. In terms of trading volume, the series of contracts titled “How will the US strike Iran?” on Polymarket has generated over $529 million in total trading volume since launching on December 22, 2024, making it the largest market in the “World” and “Geopolitics” categories; within the broader “Politics” category, it ranks fourth, behind contracts related to Trump during the 2024 election cycle.

Just on February 28 alone, trading volume reached $89.6 million. From February 28 to early March, all daily contracts were judged as “Yes” after the attack, meaning anyone who bought specific date contracts before the attack profited by betting on when the US would strike another country. Currently, the largest completed markets on Polymarket are “Will Khamenei step down as Iran’s Supreme Leader before February 28?” and “Will Khamenei step down before March 31?” After Iran’s state TV confirmed his death, these markets reached 100% completion, with volumes of $98 million and $55 million respectively, becoming some of the most active geopolitical markets last week.

The highest-volume trader account is “Curseaaaaaaaa,” which profited $757,000 by betting “Yes.” Four other traders also achieved six-figure gains.

But for every winner, there is a loser. According to Lookonchain, trader “anoin123” had made $2 million profit from shorting Iran in recent months, but within a day of the attack, this account lost $6.5 million, turning a profit of $200,000 into a loss of $4.5 million. Mysterious addresses make precise bets, fueling insider trading accusations Although supporters see Polymarket as a manifestation of “collective intelligence,” it also opens doors for illicit activities. According to on-chain analysis firm Bubblemaps, six Polymarket wallets profited $1 million by betting on US military strikes against Iran. These wallets purchased “Yes” shares of the contract “Will the US strike Iran before February 28?” just hours before the joint US-Israel airstrikes in the early morning hours in the US and Israel. Such precise buying has raised community suspicions.

However, Polymarket issued a strong response, stating, “The advantage of prediction markets lies in aggregating collective intelligence to make accurate and fair predictions on society’s most important events.” The announcement also said that after speaking with those directly affected by the attack, they found that prediction markets “can provide answers in ways that TV news and media like X cannot.”

In fact, similar insider trading incidents have occurred in Polymarket’s geopolitical markets. In January this year, a newly created account bet about $32,000 on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Before the US military action was publicly announced, this account bought shares at about 7 cents each and made over $400,000 in profit within a day, prompting a congressman to propose the “2026 Financial Prediction Market Public Integrity Act,” aiming to ban federal officials from trading on prediction markets tied to government policies. Earlier this month, an Israeli prosecutor filed charges against an IDF reservist and a civilian, accusing them of using classified military intelligence to place bets on Polymarket. It is claimed they bet on the timing of an attack on Iran during the “Twelve Days War” in June 2025, profiting over $150,000. Just days ago, according to Lookonchain, some suspected insiders used bets related to Polymarket contracts connected to the investigation of crypto platform Axiom by on-chain detective ZachXBT, making over $1 million in profit. The wallet with the largest five-figure bet turned nearly $50,000 into close to $500,000.

Is Polymarket providing more transparent information, or offering a channel for insiders to cash out? This debate will intensify as the Middle East situation evolves.