BTC drops 0.62% in 15 minutes: Rising US-Iran tensions and oil prices breaking above $100 weigh on the market together

Between 13:00 and 13:15 UTC on July 24, 2026, BTC saw a sharp drop of 0.62% over 15 minutes. The price fell from $64,799.6 to $64,359.2 USDT, with an Ampl of 0.68%. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has retreated from a high of about $65,808 to around $64,406, down roughly 0.95%, and the current price is in the intraday low range. Market attention is rising and volatility has increased, but overall this is a mild pullback rather than a major shock.

The core driver behind this move is the continued escalation of the U.S.–Iran military conflict. The U.S. military carried out airstrikes on Iranian military facilities for the 13th consecutive night. Iran has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risk has surged, pushing funds toward the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasuries and weighing on risk-asset sentiment. At the same time, attacks on Red Sea oil tankers combined with the risk of a Hormuz blockade have pushed Brent crude prices above the $100 per barrel level, intensifying inflation expectations and strengthening the view that the Fed will keep interest rates high—creating a dual drag on BTC.

Second, market pricing has already reflected expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July and throughout the year. Natixis economists expect the Fed to hold rates steady for all of 2026, while Dallas Fed President Logan argues for higher rates to address persistent inflation. Rising oil prices further reduce the room for rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Index saw a selloff, and overall risk appetite weakened, indirectly dragging on crypto market sentiment. The macro environment is also amplifying the impact of Trump’s July 24, 2026 announcement to impose a new round of tariffs on dozens of trade partners, with multiple uncertainties jointly pressuring risk assets.

Currently, BTC has broken below the key $64,400 level. On the 15-minute timeframe, moving averages have turned bearish, and the ADX is 30.15, suggesting the short-term downtrend has some momentum. Near-term support to watch is $64,359 (the 24h low) and the $64,000 integer level. Order book liquidity is extremely low. Although the buy/sell depth ratio is 4.88, it mainly reflects the presence of large single orders; investors should be alert to sharp price swings in a low-liquidity environment. Investors need to keep monitoring the trajectory of the U.S.–Iran conflict, whether oil prices can stay above $100, the wording of the Fed’s July meeting statement, and changes in BTC spot Filled Amount.