BTC rose slightly by 0.45% in 15 minutes: the escalation of the Iran-U.S. conflict and expectations of Fed rate hikes provided hedging.

From 07:00 to 07:15 UTC on July 24, 2026, BTC inched up 0.45% over 15 minutes. The trading range was 65,473.9–65,769.0 USDT, with an Ampl of 0.45%. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has moved only -0.10%, trading in a tight range around $65,300–$65,800, and the market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of a directional breakout. The current Filled Amount is just 104.61 BTC, indicating extremely low participation, and the Order Book shows only 1 level of depth, with liquidity extremely limited.

The main drivers behind this market move are a hedging battle between two forces: the escalation of geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and growing expectations of Fed rate hikes. The U.S. military conducted strikes against Iran for the 13th consecutive night; the conflict has pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel, intensifying global inflation expectations. Fed Funds futures have already priced in an 82% probability of a rate hike in September, and those rate-hike expectations are clearly weighing on risk assets.

Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty is providing BTC with some safe-haven demand support. The DXY has shown a bearish divergence signal, and BTC’s relative advantage within the crypto market has not been broken. Technically, both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving average systems have issued bearish signals. The RSI is in a neutral zone, and the ADX is consistently low, confirming the absence of favorable trend conditions. Order Book data shows a buy/sell depth ratio of 40.05, but this more likely reflects insufficient liquidity rather than genuine buying intent.

Current volatility risk is mainly centered around the Fed policy decision on July 29 and the possibility that the U.S.–Iran conflict could further escalate. If the decision is more hawkish or the conflict expands, BTC may face downside pressure; otherwise, it could trigger a rebound. Key support to watch is $64,651, while key resistance to watch is $65,789 and the $66,000 whole-number level. It is recommended to closely monitor the wording of the Fed decision, the oil price trend, and how the geopolitical situation evolves.