BTC drops 0.55% in 15 minutes: heightened US-Iran tensions combined with a stronger US dollar trigger short-term selling pressure

From 03:00-03:15 (UTC) on July 13, 2026, BTC experienced a sharp drop within 15 minutes, with a decline of -0.55%. The price ranged from $62,890.9 to $63,379.1 USDT, with a 0.77% amplitude. Amid a sell-off wave in risk assets triggered by geopolitical conflict, BTC fell in tandem, and market volatility noticeably intensified. The buy/sell depth ratio was only 0.24, with the short side dominating the short-term microstructure.

The main driver behind this move was a rapid escalation of the U.S.-Iran military conflict. From July 12-13, 2026, the U.S. launched a new round of attacks on Iran. Iran then immediately fired missiles and drones at multiple Gulf countries, including Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. The deterioration of the situation in the Middle East intensified oil price fluctuations and heated inflation expectations. Federal funds futures show the probability of at least two rate hikes by year-end rising to 52.1%. The U.S. dollar index strengthened, putting FX pressure on BTC priced in USD. Order book data show total sell orders of 0.3753 BTC far exceed total buy orders of 0.0884 BTC. At $63,014.6, there is a large sell wall of 0.2995 BTC, accounting for 79.8% of the total amount in the top 5 levels, creating clear short-term resistance.

Second, Eric Trump-linked Bitcoin miner American Bitcoin Corp. disclosed losses of more than $600 million, further denting short-term market confidence. The UN Secretary-General urgently called for a ceasefire, highlighting that the market’s pricing of systemic risk is still insufficient. The 15-minute ADX reached 39.4, indicating a strong short-term downward trend consistent with the heavy sell pressure in the order book. However, daily moving averages still maintain bullish signals, and the medium-to-long-term structure has not been broken.

Keep an eye on developments in U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and remarks from Federal Reserve officials. The current 52.1% probability of two rate hikes is the key swing point. Key support is $63,000 (the largest buy order level). If it breaks, BTC could further test $62,500. For resistance, watch the $63,015 large sell wall and the $64,069 opening price.