Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood to $160 from $130 on Monday while maintaining its Outperform rating, citing the broker's positioning to benefit from a generational shift in retail trading. The new target rests on a thesis that broker-dealers, incumbent exchanges, prediction platforms, and crypto-native venues will compete over a fee pool worth more than $70 billion across prediction markets, perpetual futures, tokenized equities, and emerging compute-linked contracts over the next two years, according to analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. The firm expects Robinhood to grow prediction market revenue at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion, while the Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since its late May launch.
Bernstein Raises Robinhood Price Target to $160
Bernstein increased its price target on Robinhood from $130 to $160 on Monday, maintaining its Outperform rating. Analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote in a note that the broker is well positioned to benefit from a generational shift in how retail investors trade. The firm kept its 35x one-year forward earnings multiple, rolling its valuation horizon to 2028 and targeting $4.56 in earnings per share, 39% ahead of consensus.
Rothera Exchange Processes 3.5 Billion Contracts Since Late May
The Robinhood-linked Rothera exchange, a CFTC-licensed venue launched in late May, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts since going live, according to the note. FIFA World Cup markets accounted for roughly 93% of that volume. Rothera has become the fourth-largest prediction venue by volume within a month of launch, Bernstein said, accounting for about 16% of Robinhood's total event-contract volumes, while the rest routes to Kalshi.
Bernstein Projects Prediction Markets Revenue to Reach $1.7 Billion by 2028
Bernstein expects Robinhood to grow prediction market revenue at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion. The firm sees the second quarter of 2026 as potentially the first in which prediction markets surpass crypto as a revenue line for Robinhood. Bernstein models roughly $150 million in prediction market revenue for the quarter, up from about $104 million in the first quarter, while crypto trading volumes decline roughly 38% quarter over quarter. The firm modeled prediction markets, perpetual futures, and Robinhood Chain contributing 18% of total revenue in 2027 and 23% in 2028, up from about 3% in 2025.
Bernstein Cuts 2026 Crypto Revenue Estimate by 49%
Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49%, citing softer-than-expected industry volumes in the first half of the year. The cut pulled the firm's 2026 total revenue estimate down 10% to $5.3 billion, with adjusted EBITDA falling 19% to $2.8 billion and earnings per share dropping to $2.05 from a prior $2.65, the note said. Analysts also frame crypto weakness as cyclical rather than structural, treating any bitcoin price inflection as upside not built into their model.
Robinhood's Distribution Across 27 Million Funded Accounts
One of Bernstein's core arguments is that Robinhood's edge across every new asset class is distribution. New trading products commoditize quickly, making customer access the binding constraint, and Robinhood can launch across 27 million funded accounts and 14 million monthly active users at near-zero acquisition cost, the analysts wrote. Robinhood Chain, the company's Arbitrum-based Layer 2 that went live July 1, recently crossed $400 million in total value locked and is tracking annualized decentralized exchange volumes of roughly $200 billion and about $50 million in annualized chain fees.
FAQ
What price target did Bernstein set for Robinhood?
Bernstein raised its price target on Robinhood to $160 from $130 on Monday while maintaining its Outperform rating.
How much prediction market revenue does Bernstein project for Robinhood by 2028?
Bernstein expects Robinhood to grow prediction market revenue at a 64% compound annual rate through 2028, reaching $1.7 billion.
Why did Bernstein cut its 2026 crypto revenue estimate for Robinhood?
Bernstein lowered its 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49%, citing softer-than-expected industry volumes in the first half of the year.
