Prediction Market

US-based traders are the largest national group on offshore crypto prediction platforms by contract volume and wallet count, despite active geoblocking measures, according to a July 2, 2026 report by blockchain analytics firm Allium. The finding stems from persistent demand for political wagering pr

According to blockchain analytics firm Allium's July 2, 2026 report, US-based traders represent the largest national cohort by notional trading volume on offshore crypto prediction platforms, despite active geoblocking measures designed to restrict their access. The analysis found the US cohort

According to the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) today, companies cannot circumvent EU financial rules by marketing binary-style products as event contracts rather than derivatives. Many prediction market event contracts already face EU retail bans as regulators tighten oversight

According to PPP prediction market tool, an address that earned $1.13 million in profits over the past week purchased $330,000 in positions betting on Argentina's victory at Polymarket's World Cup 1/16 final prediction market. The address is 0x0346afae2603313d2bbee96b628536c8cbe352a5.

According to Polymarket, traders price Bitcoin reaching $70,000 in July at just 21% probability, with roughly $102,000 wagered on the strike. Meanwhile, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $221.7 million in net inflows yesterday, the strongest daily intake since early May, reversing a $1.79 billion

According to Polymarket, on July 4, Bitcoin hitting $70,000 this year saw prediction odds rise to 65%, up from 54% on June 26. Prediction odds for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 and $90,000 this year stood at 32% and 19%,

According to Bloomberg, on July 3, Spotify demanded that prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket remove its logo and clarified that no partnership exists between them. The action followed Spotify's discovery of manipulated song charts used to settle prediction market contracts. Spotify

According to BlockBeats, prediction market platform Predict.fun data showed on July 3 that Argentina faces Cape Verde in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 32 knockout stage. The market gives Argentina an advancement probability of approximately 94%, while Cape Verde holds only 7%, reflecting

According to Odaily Seer, TES odds in predict.fun's League of Legends MSI G2 vs TES (BO5) prediction market dropped from 92% to 53% on July 3 as the teams tied 2-2, forcing a decisive Game 5. TES had claimed a 2-0 lead with three match points, but G2 rallied in Games 3 and 4, executing superior

According to PPP prediction market tool, a wallet identified as shijiebeifacai (0xbc1b1e935cf5a06f9378fe2b249338649dc29d59) purchased $290,000 worth of Argentina advance contracts on Polymarket ahead of the July 4 World Cup round-of-16 match against Cape Verde. The position was opened at an

Solana-based prediction market platform World adopted Chainlink oracle price feeds to settle prediction markets with verifiable data. The integration, which operates through the Phantom wallet infrastructure, aims to reduce oracle manipulation risk by providing tamper-resistant price data for market

According to world.xyz, Solana-based prediction market World adopted Chainlink oracle price feeds on July 1, 2026. The integration, accessible via Phantom wallet, enables the platform to settle prediction markets with verifiable data feeds, reducing oracle manipulation

The round of 32 knockout stage of the 2026 World Cup is set to feature a highly anticipated intercontinental clash in the early hours of July 4 Beijing time, as Australia meets Egypt at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Both teams advanced as group runners-up, separated by just two spots in the world rankings (Egypt 26th, Australia 28th). Despite the evenly matched contest, capital flows in prediction markets show a clear preference. According to data from Gate Prediction Market, as of July 3, 2026, the m

According to Allium, US users are bypassing geoblocks to place bets on political markets on Polymarket's global platform as of July 3, 2026.

Spotify removed over 500,000 fake streams from musician Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" around July 3, dropping it from the top spot on the U.S. charts to fourth place; Spotify's investigation found that the stream manipulation was directly tied to prediction market betting activity – traders on the Kalshi platform wagered on which song would become the most-streamed on Spotify in the U.S. for June. Spotify Investigation Results: Process of Removing 500,000 Fake Streams and Chart Correction Accor

According to monitoring by the PPP prediction market tool, a single address has placed a $150,000 bet predicting no draw in the Switzerland vs. Algeria match scheduled to kick off in 30 minutes. The address is the only holder of a significant position on the match outcome. Historical data shows the

According to Bloomberg, Spotify removed over 500,000 artificial plays from a song by Malcolm Todd on July 3, after discovering the play manipulation was linked to betting activity on the Kalshi prediction market. The market attracted $3 million in trading as participants wagered on which song

According to PPP prediction market monitoring, an address that earned $570,000 in the past week purchased a $360,000 position on "over 2.5 total goals" in Portugal vs Croatia World Cup Round of 16 match on Polymarket. The address in question is

According to PPP prediction market monitoring, an address has purchased $240,000 worth of predictions on Polymarket betting that Austria will not win in the World Cup Round of 16 match against Spain. The address has generated $310,000 in profits over the past week and $390,000 in total gains since i

According to Odaily Seer, on predict.fun's prediction market for tomorrow's World Cup Round of 16 match between Spain and Austria (3 a.m. Beijing time), Spain's winning probability stands at 75%, with a draw at 18% and Austria at 8%. The odds reflect Spain's unbeaten group stage performance—2 wins a