永乐的征程

Currently, there are two relatively important fundamental factors: one is the escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran, and the other is Powell's hawkish remarks. Let me start with the conflict. Although the IEA released oil to lower prices, Iran is preparing to escalate the war. The market is quite worried about the impact on industry and energy, causing oil prices to rise again. Currently, WTI crude is back to $99, and it may surge to $100 tomorrow. Although Powell didn't explicitly mention oil prices' impact,
he did acknowledge that rising oil prices could push up inflation

The Nasdaq has been oscillating between 24,000 and 25,000 points over the past month without significant fluctuations, indicating that while the market acknowledges the war's progression, it hasn't reached a panic stage yet. After all, everyone knows that although the war has driven up oil prices in recent weeks, rising oil prices have triggered repeated inflation concerns. However, the war is unlikely to last very long. Moreover, investors currently don't expect the Fed to cut rates before Powell leaves office.
So although the market appears quite bustling, the bigger risks aren't currently f

近期宏觀上沒什麼新鮮的，仍然是地緣衝突影響市場的一天，白天還算好，美國和伊朗都傳出可能會停火的信息，霍爾木茲海峽也階段性的同行了一下，但到了晚上幺蛾子就繼續了，一方面是疑似伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽散布了水雷，一方面又是說美國護送了油船通過霍爾木茲海峽，但實際並沒有護送，這一天天的。
戰爭打到現在已經快兩周了吧，伊朗的頑強可能會超過美國的想像，我看了預測網站上對於美國和伊朗停火的概率，在 4月 前只有 33%，5月前才剛剛過半，這就代表接下來的半個月可能仍然是維持震盪的行情，最起碼也要是霍爾木茲海峽穩定了才能算階段性緩解。
不過今天川普也確實要求以色列停止對伊朗能源基礎設施的打擊，這也是開戰以來第一次美國對以色列做出要求，應該是雙方緊張局面緩解的開始。
回到 BTC 的數據來看，成交量下降，換手率上升，投資者的情緒較差，尤其是戰爭膠著，霍爾木茲海峽仍然沒有通暢，而且估計油價也要漲了，市場跟著震盪也是在正常不過了，短期想要有個結果有點難了。
不過籌碼結構還是挺好的，沒有出現恐慌拋售的跡象，較早期的投資者對於目前的價格仍然沒有太大的反應，只要沒有進一步的利空，我個人覺得大幅下跌的可能性並不大。

BTC 目前趨勢依然維持在6.9萬以上，凌晨向下回落至682000位置後快速收回，目前來看，7萬上方還有巨大的空投流動性清理，当前位置非常容易形成誘多行為，讓各位都認為市場很強勢跌不下去，統統埋伏進多單後造成市場向上走一段後突然掉頭向下跌。這種騙炮動作太經典了。
所以各位在繼續觀察一下，哪怕是確認突破後再去埋伏也不遲，7萬附近的壓力位依然在，市場在此位置進行多空吸籌，就看殺那邊了。