张烁峰的剧本日记

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.19
Let me start with the conclusion: I believe BTC will complete the decline starting from 76000 earliest by next week, or at the latest by the 3.30 weekly candle. The magnitude of this decline will determine which route it follows as shown in the chart.
Since BTC broke through 74000, I have been consistently pouring cold water on the situation, repeatedly reminding everyone that this is only a rebound. After the rebound ends, it will continue to decline. Even if the rebound level expands, the first rebound segment has already entered its final stage, followed by

The targets in yesterday's strategy have been completed. Bitcoin broke below 71,000, Ethereum hit a low of 2,150, and all short positions that were entered have been closed with profits. Regardless of how much profit was captured, the result is that all positions have been safely secured. The strategy adjustment was very timely, and of course this is also inseparable from the cooperation of friends. Next, we will continue our efforts and strive to multiply friends' positions several times over.
In fact, there is not much explanation needed for this market trend. Whether it's technical support

美联储维持利率不变，但是根据美联储点阵图中值：2026年将累计降息25个基点。也就是说今年大概率只会降息一次。#美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

還有20分鐘公布美聯儲決議，2點30還要聽老鮑叽叽喳喳，有多少人守著這個時間的？ ​​​#美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

美國把BTC、ETH、SOL、ADA、DOT、LINK、DOGE、LTC、XRP、HBAR、SHIB這些主流幣都歸為"Digital Commodities"（數字商品），不是證券。
這其中的核心邏輯是這些標的的價值來自去中心化系統自身運作 + 市場供需，而不是靠團隊畫餅、管理預期或被動分紅權。
一句話總結：真正去中心化的原生幣=商品；中心化發幣靠敘事/團隊的大概率被當成證券盯上。
這意味著，以後大量不在這個名單的山寨幣、土狗幣，天花板很低，因為成規模的增量資金很難涌入被貼"證券"標籤的山寨幣。但反過來，長期來看這對$BTC和$ETH是大利好。監管越清晰，資金越會加速回流大市值。
不過需要提醒各位的是，以上所說的只是幫助大家理解標的的長期發展前景，目前幣圈的熊市還在繼續……#美联储利率决议 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

$BTC 行情分析 2026.03.18
6万起的反弹已持续39天，該反彈若是針對97900-6万這段下跌（藍色路線）那麼本周必須找到反彈終點向下走。否則6万起運行的可能是針對126000-6万整段下跌的反彈（紅色路線）
基於我們對於BTC結構的劃分給出了圖示兩種可能的路線：
紅色：6万起的反彈整體是一個三波結構，本周周K的最高點是第一段反彈的終點。第一段反彈結束後回調至3月底四月初，出現一個不破6万的調整終點後開啟下一段反彈並持續至四月中下旬。完成6万起的整段反彈後會開啟與126000-6万同級別的下跌。
藍色：6万起的反彈是針對979-6万的，那麼本周找到反彈終點後會繼續下跌，完成126000起的整段下跌後運行一個同級別的反彈。該路線下低點需要低於6万，目前留給下跌的時間很有限，拖得時間越久，這種走勢的概率就會越低。
我已做好了針對兩種走勢的交易策略，等待市場給出答案果斷出擊。$BTC ‌#美联储利率决议

從小搏到大，靠的不是一時，是一世！
把這些年總結的一些經驗整理出來，給剛接觸市場的朋友做個參考。
第一條：大跌之後先冷靜。
價格連續下跌幾天時，很多人會因為情緒選擇離場。市場在這種階段常會進入短期修復階段，所以與其急著行動，不如先觀察節奏是否出現變化。
第二條：上漲之後要懂得控制倉位。
價格連續走高時，情緒最容易被帶動。適當分批降低倉位，可以把已經獲得的收益鎖定下來，也能給自己留下調整空間。
第三條：橫盤階段多觀察。
有些標的會長時間維持在一個區間內波動。當價格和成交量同時出現變化時，往往意味著新的走勢開始形成，這時候再考慮是否參與會更穩一些。
第四條：不要長時間消耗在沒有變化的標的上。
如果持有一段時間依然沒有出現明顯波動，可以重新評估是否繼續持有。市場機會很多，把精力集中在更活躍的標的上更重要。
第五條：留意市場熱度變化。
熱門板塊和熱門標的通常會出現輪動現象，排名靠前的項目容易吸引更多關注。觀察資金流向，有助於理解市場情緒。
第六條：注意成交量變化。
成交量往往能反映市場參與度。當價格上漲但量能沒有跟上時，需要保持謹慎；量價配合的走勢通常更穩定。
這些經驗並不是固定公式，只是長期觀察市場後的一些總結。
任何市場都存在波動和風險，參與之前要有自己的判斷，也要控制好倉位。
保持耐心、保持理性，比頻繁操作更重要。
市場每天都在變化，真正重要的，是建立屬於自己的規則。
#比特币站上7

Bitcoin, I went long from 60,000 to 74,000
and 12 days have already passed
I only missed a few hundred points of gains
but you, my friend
for the next six months, all you'll be doing every day is praying that Bitcoin returns to 7xxxx
someone will definitely ask
after rising so much, can it really break below 60,000?
my answer is: absolutely, definitely, certainly yes!
let's wait and see
#比特币站上7.5万美元 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Price has rebounded to 74,250. Currently confirming support through a pullback to the 73,850 zone. Although the 1-hour level has formed a bearish crossover, its signal effectiveness is limited due to weak momentum and distance from the midline. If the 15-minute timeframe shows a clear stabilization signal, re-entry can be considered. Stability at this level will effectively limit the pullback depth on the 30-minute timeframe. The 73,175 level (EMA52 moving average) on the daily chart can be viewed as a key support level, with relatively strong support at this position. #比特币站上7.5万美元 $BTC ‌$ETH

FET although it has been rising 15-20% every day recently, when I liquidated around 3.2 in March 2024, I still kept a bottom position of 73,000 coins with a cost of 0.65, which is already quite low for 2023-2024. But last year on 10.11, a huge wick went straight from 0.61 to 0.13, truly shameless. Two years ago at a cost of 0.65, it dropped for a year without losses, but ended up being trapped on 10.11 as well. So after breaking even in the next cycle, I won't play these altcoins anymore, at most I'll just take short to medium-term positions during one-sided rallies.#比特币突破7.5万美元 $FET

74000跌到65600仅仅用了4天
65600拉回74000却吭哧吭哧用了8天
这你告诉我多头赢了？
多头赢在哪了？
能不能加把劲先拉回一月份98000的起跌点？
跌破60000只是时间问题
盘面给了多头更多的喘息时间
但仅仅是熊市的中场休息时间#比特币站上七万美元 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Looking at today's market, that's really the case.
Today, the victims of Hong Kong stocks and crypto finally came together. #加密市场上涨 $BTC

$BTC Market Analysis 2026.03.16
The BTC rebound from 60,000 has lasted 38 days. If this is a rebound against the 97,900-60,000 decline (blue section in chart), it must end the rebound this week and begin accelerating downward. The next Gann time low point is at the end of March/beginning of April, leaving limited time for the decline.
If any of the following occurs this week, it will gradually increase the probability of expanding the rebound level to counter the 126,000-60,000 decline (red section in chart):
1. Break through 75,600 with 4-hour and daily K-line closing above it
2. Contact wit

又见证历史了，诺大个海峡，谁也不敢过。#伊朗明确达成停火协议要求