Adam Back:比特幣下跌反而是利好信號?歷史週期與機構資金揭示BTC長期上漲邏輯

BTC-2.68%

2月26日消息,比特幣早期核心人物、Blockstream首席執行官Adam Back近日在邁阿密海灘舉行的行業大會上表示,當前比特幣價格回調並不罕見,反而可能是市場週期中的正常階段性現象。他指出,按照以往四年週期規律,比特幣在週期中段出現調整屬於典型走勢,並不一定意味著基本面惡化。

數據顯示,過去一年比特幣價格回落約26%,但與此同時,美國對數字資產的政策環境逐步轉向友好,現貨比特幣ETF等合規投資渠道持續吸引機構資金。Adam Back認為,一部分交易員的拋售行為更多是在遵循歷史價格節奏,而非對短期消息面作出情緒化反應,這種階段性波動在比特幣市場結構中長期存在。

從資金結構角度看,他特別區分了散戶與機構持倉特徵。散戶通常在上漲階段集中入場,價格回落後可用於加倉的資金有限;而ETF持有者及機構投資者則更具耐心和資產配置能力,在市場震盪期間往往不會頻繁離場。隨著機構比特幣配置比例逐步上升,市場波動率有望在長期下降,這也是當前加密市場結構變化的重要信號。

值得注意的是,在通脹與地緣風險升溫背景下,黃金與白銀價格持續走強,部分避險資金短期流向貴金屬而非加密資產。儘管比特幣具備稀缺性和抗通脹敘事,但本輪週期中其“數字黃金”屬性尚未完全反映在價格表現上。不過,Adam Back將當前階段類比早期亞馬遜股票,認為快速 adoption 往往伴隨劇烈波動,隨後才會進入更穩定的價值發現階段。

他還提到,比特幣市值較黃金仍存在顯著差距,若其作為價值儲存資產的敘事持續強化,長期成長空間依舊可觀。另有市場傳聞稱,Blockstream正計劃擴大比特幣儲備,潛在購入規模或達數萬枚BTC,這也被部分分析人士視為機構長期看多比特幣價格走勢的重要信號。

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