橙子研究院

【Fed Rate Decision Approaching, Will BTC Reverse Course?】
After a series of small bullish steps, BTC has finally reached the top of the descending flag channel near the 75000 resistance zone—an important pressure level we've mentioned several times. As expected, it encountered resistance at the highs, currently leaving a small upper wick. 【See Chart 1】
From the 4-hour timeframe, the pullback from highs shows a rather obvious divergence, and the price action needs a correction and consolidation.
However, is this the end of this rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily close can hold above 75000, this critical level. If it can close above and consolidate, the market will likely move toward 80000. If it continues to trade below 75000, the risk of a top will increase significantly.
We need to pay close attention to the support at 73000. If this level is effectively broken on a downside move, the probability of this rebound ending is very high! 【See Chart 2】
From a personal subjective perspective, I'm leaning more bearish. First, after touching the important resistance level, there was no clean breakthrough; instead, the price fell back into the flag pattern, consuming too much bullish strength.
Second, the Federal Reserve rate decision meeting is on the 19th. A rate cut is basically impossible at this meeting, and instead, we might hear negative news due to inflation caused by war-driven oil price increases.
BTC has also risen quite a bit recently. Once bearish catalysts emerge and the stock market falls, BTC's downside will be even more severe!
Therefore, at the current stage, focus on defense. Avoid overconfidence and reckless gains-chasing. Don't chase rallies or panic sell!
Trading Strategy: Currently hold spot positions, use 73000 as a defense level, and plan to exit in batches above 78000 for swing trading.
#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元 $ETH

【Viewpoint Unchanged: BTC Rebound Continues, Will We See $80,000?】
Brief Market Update:
Overall viewpoint remains unchanged from yesterday.
BTC is currently still in a rebound structure, but resistance above is also very evident.
Key levels to focus on:
Resistance zone: 73,000—74,000
Strong resistance: Around 79,000
Support zone: 68,000—69,000
If volume cannot break through the resistance zone, the market will likely continue consolidating.
Recently there has been a lot of news in the market, with frequent small timeframe wicks, making short-term trading quite challenging. More patience would be better.
Trading suggestion: Consider taking profits in batches and trading (doing T) when BTC rebounds above 78,000
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #ETH $ETH

【Bitcoin Ascending Flag Formation Complete, Rebound Target Eyeing 79660?】
Bitcoin has been experiencing frequent intraday pump-and-dump moves due to Middle East tensions. Therefore, we need to adjust to relatively higher timeframes to observe the market more clearly.
From the adjusted 2-day chart perspective, Bitcoin's triangle has broken above the upper boundary and completed a pullback confirmation. The upper support remains valid, and the structure for continued upward movement is still quite clear. Currently, price is near the important 73000 resistance zone experiencing a retracement move.
With multiple resistance levels ahead, any rebound will inevitably involve back-and-forth oscillations, so short-term operations present considerable difficulty.
At this stage of the market, we estimate the pullback will be relatively gentle. After all, the war news hasn't directly crashed Bitcoin, and short-term resilience has shown decent performance. Below, we should focus on the 68000-69000 support zone.
On the upside resistance side, Bitcoin has formed an **ascending flag structure**. The upper edge of the flag serves as the resistance level, approximately around 74900, and overlaps with the 73000-74000 resistance zone. Therefore, the pressure here is extremely significant.
Unless there's a volume breakout, it will be difficult for Bitcoin to directly surge past this level in the short term. Therefore, this can still serve as a **first profit-taking position** for reference.
If the market truly breaks through this resistance zone, the upside target can continue to reference the **CME gap fill at approximately 79660**.
One final reminder:
**Ascending flags often exist only to be broken.**
Rebounds are rebounds, but once the structure is broken in the follow-up, Bitcoin's overall downtrend has not ended. The true major-level low point may very well not have appeared yet—everyone must keep this in mind.
#比特币重新站上7万美元大关 $BTC #BTC $ETH

【Bullish Defense Holds, Is a Major Rebound Coming?】
Based on yesterday's analysis, after Bitcoin broke below 67,000, it started testing support downward. Currently, the price is still operating near this critical 67,000 level. This position itself is an important defensive line along the upper edge of the triangle structure. Therefore, the upcoming trend can actually be understood from two perspectives.
First scenario: The rebound structure gradually strengthens.
If the market rebounds next and the rebound height continues to rise, and the bears' two attempts to suppress the price fail to produce new lows, it indicates that in the current battle between bulls and bears, the bulls are gradually gaining the upper hand.
In other words, the bulls are holding their ground in this area. Once market confidence gradually recovers, there could be a genuine rebound trend.
Second scenario: The current rebound is merely a symbolic technical correction.
If the rebound strength is noticeably weak and the rebound space is limited, then caution is needed, as this downward structure may not have truly ended.
In this case, the market is likely to continue downward after a brief correction, potentially testing lower levels.
But even so, it's not entirely a bad thing. Because if the market continues to decline, it may create new significant buying opportunities at lower levels.
Overall, the market is still in a key structural decision phase.
Short-term bulls and bears are still oscillating around 67,000.
Trading idea: Currently, the position is suitable for holding and enduring. Even if it drops further, it's a big opportunity.
#亚洲股市暴跌 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH

【BTC67000 Defense Line Temporarily Holds, Bulls and Bears Enter Critical Battle Zone】
Previously, it was mentioned that after Bitcoin reaches the 74,000 resistance level, it needs to pull back to find support, and the strategy should lean towards defense. Subsequently, the market also moved as expected, briefly breaking below 70,000, indicating short-term market weakness.
However, from the current chart, Bitcoin ultimately closed above 67,000, holding the previously mentioned triangle upper support zone, indicating that the bulls are still defending this position.
Current Key Levels:
Support: 67,000, 64,000 (Bull/Bear Critical Line)
Resistance: 70,000, 74,000
If 67,000 can continue to hold, Bitcoin still has the chance to challenge the 70,000-74,000 range again;
But if the daily chart falls back inside the triangle, the market is likely to test 64,000, or even look for support at 58,000-59,000.
Overall, the market is still in the phase of choosing direction, with more frequent fluctuations.
In terms of strategy: Since you're already trapped, hold your current position. The short to medium term has already seen significant drops, and holding through the dip might be the way to go. Perhaps the dawn is just ahead. Bitcoin is still expected to rally towards around 78,000 USD, so consider exiting or doing T for profit-taking.

[70,000 Lost! BTC Bulls Retreat to the 67,000 Defense Line]
Previously, it was analyzed that after Bitcoin hits the 74,000 resistance, the strategy should shift towards defense. The rebound expectation is limited, and it’s more reasonable to pull back and look for support. The market also aligns with our view, even breaking below the short-term moving average support at 70,000, showing clear weakness!
We will continue to observe from the perspective of the triangle structure. Currently, Bitcoin is testing the upper boundary support of the triangle, around 67,000. This remains an important line of defense for the bulls.
If the daily closing price falls back inside the triangle, the last line of defense can only rely on the support at the lower boundary, around 64,000, which is essentially the bulls’ critical survival line.
If this level is effectively broken, the probability of making a new low will greatly increase. We will then look for rebound opportunities around 58,000-59,000!

【CME Gap 79660-81210, the ultimate target of this rebound?】
Bitcoin has been highly volatile in the past two days due to news about the Middle East conflict, with the market fluctuating sharply and experiencing several false breakout and false breakdown signals. Short-term trading is quite challenging, but from a long-term perspective, the trend remains clear. We are still following the previously projected script, successfully breaking through and reaching the first resistance level around 74,000, with accurate prediction.
As the market reaches this level, it’s important to focus on defense. First, we clarify that this is only a rebound. Due to heavy resistance above and constraints from industry cycles and liquidity, the rebound expectations are also limited.
At least around 74,000, there should be some consolidation and resistance. Emotional funds might push the price briefly to 75,000, but a pullback is more reasonable in the end, with support near 70,000.
With valid support, there’s a possibility of further upward movement. If broken, the market will likely enter a correction and consolidation phase.
Optimistically, the rebound’s endpoint continues to reference the CME gap 79660-81210. This gap is difficult to fill in one go, and overcoming it will be very challenging. If the price can reach this level, it’s a good opportunity for swing trading!

[Is the true bottom of BTC not here yet? First 80K, then 50K, and finally aiming for 100K — the complete script]
Last night during the live stream, I already outlined the main direction. Here’s a brief summary (the referenced article contains more detailed logic):
The current core idea is:
First, watch BTC rebound to the 75,000–80,000 USD range. During this phase, focus on reducing positions and taking profits; then, there’s a high probability of a retest, dropping to the 54,000–60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is confirmed, the market will be more likely to enter a large-scale rally, with the target potentially exceeding 100,000 USD.
Therefore, the key to trading is not “holding tightly” or “blindly bottom-fishing,” but:
When there’s room for a rebound, reduce positions to lock in profits; during dips, buy back in low, using volatility to lower the average cost, so profits can be amplified.
In simple terms: survive the wave swings first, then wait for the main upward wave to take profits.

[Is the true bottom of BTC not here yet? First 80K, then 50K, and finally aiming for 100K — the complete script]
Last night during the live stream, I already outlined the main direction. Here’s a brief summary (the referenced article contains more detailed logic):
The current core idea is:
First, watch BTC rebound to the 75,000–80,000 USD range. During this phase, focus on reducing positions and taking profits; then, there’s a high probability of a retest, dropping to the 54,000–60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is confirmed, the market will be more likely to enter a large-scale rally, with the target potentially exceeding 100,000 USD.
Therefore, the key to trading is not “holding tightly” or “blindly bottom-fishing,” but:
When there’s room for a rebound, reduce positions to lock in profits; during dips, buy back in low, using volatility to lower the average cost, so profits can be amplified.
In simple terms: survive the wave swings first, then wait for the main upward wave to take profits.

[Where is the bottom: 57,000 or 54,000? Multiple support levels are about to see a major rebound]
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, instead moving sideways with a horizontal trend. This is the most frustrating situation—no rise when it should, and after exhausting rebound momentum, it can only continue downward to seek support!
Currently, after Bitcoin briefly dipped below the previous small low, a minor divergence appeared. Therefore, the small support at 62,500 can serve as a clear defensive position (stop-loss below 61,600). The market will rely on this level for a rebound. Pay close attention to the 8 o'clock daily close; if it can recover above 65,000, the rebound will continue. The first resistance level is around 70,000.
If not, then after weak consolidation, a new low is highly probable! At that point, we need to observe whether a quick dip to a new low results in a secondary daily divergence, which could be a trading opportunity. If it’s a decline with bearish momentum, then we will need to wait further.
In terms of levels, the 57,000-58,000 range and around 54,000 are potential support zones, especially 54,000. This level is where multiple supports converge: the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish candle body, the 7-day moving average, and the lower boundary of the upward channel since the last bear market low of 15,476. A major rebound is expected here, making it a key area to watch!

[Is the true bottom of BTC not here yet? First 80K, then 50K, and finally aiming for 100K — the complete script]
Last night during the live stream, I already outlined the main direction. Here’s a brief summary (the referenced article contains more detailed logic):
The current core idea is:
First, watch BTC rebound to the 75,000–80,000 USD range. During this phase, focus on reducing positions and taking profits; then, there’s a high probability of a retest, dropping to the 54,000–60,000 USD range to find the real stage bottom. Once the second bottom is confirmed, the market will be more likely to enter a large-scale rally, with the target potentially exceeding 100,000 USD.
Therefore, the key to trading is not “holding tightly” or “blindly bottom-fishing,” but:
When there’s room for a rebound, reduce positions to lock in profits; during dips, buy back in low, using volatility to lower the average cost, so profits can be amplified.
In simple terms: survive the wave swings first, then wait for the main upward wave to take profits.

[Where is the bottom: 57,000 or 54,000? Multiple support levels are about to see a major rebound]
After the four-hour divergence appeared, Bitcoin has not been able to organize an effective rebound, instead moving sideways with a horizontal trend. This is the most frustrating situation—no rise when it should, and after exhausting rebound momentum, it can only continue downward to seek support!
Currently, after Bitcoin briefly dipped below the previous small low, a minor divergence appeared. Therefore, the small support at 62,500 can serve as a clear defensive position (stop-loss below 61,600). The market will rely on this level for a rebound. Pay close attention to the 8 o'clock daily close; if it can recover above 65,000, the rebound will continue. The first resistance level is around 70,000.
If not, then after weak consolidation, a new low is highly probable! At that point, we need to observe whether a quick dip to a new low results in a secondary daily divergence, which could be a trading opportunity. If it’s a decline with bearish momentum, then we will need to wait further.
In terms of levels, the 57,000-58,000 range and around 54,000 are potential support zones, especially 54,000. This level is where multiple supports converge: the Fibonacci 0.236 level of the 25-year bullish candle body, the 7-day moving average, and the lower boundary of the upward channel since the last bear market low of 15,476. A major rebound is expected here, making it a key area to watch!

【Before the true main rally of BTC, the market usually crashes once first】
Let's clarify the conclusion directly to make it easier for everyone to execute:
Current BTC trading plan:
① Rebound zone: 75,000—80,000 USD → Reduce positions and trade
② Pullback zone: 54,000—60,000 USD → Gradually buy back
③ Complete secondary bottoming → Wait for the main rally
④ Major target: Above 100,000 USD
Note that the most common mistakes here are two:
- Not daring to buy after a decline
- Reluctant to sell after a rise
The market won't give you bull market profits all at once, but redistributes chips through volatility.
The real profit-makers are not the ones with the most accurate predictions, but those with the strongest execution.
So, the core of this market phase is not all-in betting, but:
Use volatility to lower costs, and wait patiently for the trend.
First, manage your positions well, and the bull market will naturally come to you.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC

【Understanding Bitcoin in One Article: Short-term Trading Logic + Mid-term Risks + Long-term Opportunities】
Bitcoin's recent decline has been rapid and fierce. Our initial strong support at 69,000 was briefly tested and then broken after slight resistance. The price continued to break through the second support at 63,000, dropping straight down to 60,000 before bouncing back and stabilizing, signaling a halt to the decline.
The 69,000 level is what we define as a shallow bear position, once held with high hopes. But facing such fragile reality, we need to update our outlook on the upcoming market. The trend is set; the shallow bear is unlikely, and a deep bear market has become a reality!
Looking back to 2025, the most frequently heard phrase is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed. However, the recent months' market behavior has given us a loud slap in the face, confirming that while the cycle may weaken, it will not fail!
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin has consecutively broken two major support levels in a short period, indicating that 60,000 is not the bottom. We still need to look lower.
The principle is simple: quick and ruthless. This wave of decline is a large C-wave downward, based on structure. According to market rules, such a C-wave typically develops into a five-wave pattern, with five waves being longer than three. Therefore, after a rebound, new lows are highly probable!
⸻
Externally, Powell's term ends on May 15, 2026. Optimistically, if Trump's nominee is confirmed, the new chair will be dovish, advocating easing policies. But historically, market reactions to such appointments usually take 2 to 3 months, so the new cycle might start around August...
Moreover, there are uncertainties in the nomination process. Opponents are active. If the new chair isn't confirmed promptly, the Fed may need Vice Chair Philip Jefferson to serve as acting chair. He's hawkish and concerned about inflation, not friendly to easing. So, the external environment remains complex. It's not as simple as replacing someone in May and easing in June!
In summary, with internal and external troubles, the bottom hasn't arrived yet. Everyone should prepare mentally for at least half a year of long-term resistance!
⸻
Back to the chart, where might the bottom be? Let's do a rough projection.
Based on our previous views, there are a few key levels downward. From a yearly chart perspective, the lows of the last two bear markets were near the 7-month moving average (MA7). Currently, MA7 is around 54,638, which is worth watching.
Let's also look at the Fibonacci retracement of the bullish candle in 2024. The 0.236 level is at 54,388, closely aligning with MA7, providing strong support.
Next, on the weekly chart, the important MA233 is at about 56,654, also close. This means the 54,000 to 57,000 range consolidates several major supports. Considering the extreme volatility caused by chain reactions of liquidations, the bottom is likely between 51,000 and 57,000!
⸻
Strategically, entering in stages below 60,000 is definitely safe. If a black swan event drives the price down to the 40,000s, don't hesitate—go all in! Note that this discussion only applies to spot trading; futures trading is a different story—trade at your own risk!
Finally, regarding the short- to medium-term daily cycle: the current rebound is the main theme. Finding long opportunities is much safer than shorting. The short-term resistance at 71,000 has been touched today, and the rebound is expected to continue. The next resistance levels are around 74,000 to 75,000. Beyond that, the major pressure is at 80,000.
CME has a large downward gap, which after a gap-up, accelerated the decline. This is currently considered a breakout gap downward, with a low chance of being filled. The lower boundary or halfway of the gap will be a huge resistance, likely marking the end of this rebound. We need to be aware of this.
Reviewing all our views since August, the overall trend predictions have been accurate. The upcoming market remains risky, so caution is advised. Cherish every opportunity!
To summarize our trading approach: currently fully long, waiting for Bitcoin to rebound to 75,000–80,000 to consider swing trading. If it retraces, buy back spot. For mid- to long-term reversal, Bitcoin must stabilize above 82,000 USD on the daily chart to initiate an upward trend. For now, focus on swing trading—buy low, sell high. We will adjust our judgment based on the current market conditions, making our strategy more rational.