2026-03-19 06:25:53

【Fed "Hawk Call" Rings Loud! BTC Breaks Below 73,000, Is the Real Risk Just Beginning?】

The dust settled late night with the Federal Reserve's March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting conclusions: maintaining interest rates unchanged, planning only 1 rate cut for the year, raising inflation expectations, and adding Middle East risk warnings. Dot plot (interest rate path): End of 2026: 3.4% (only 1 rate cut for the year, 25bp), End of 2027: 3.1% (another 1 rate cut, 25bp), 2028 and long-term: 3.1% (long-term rates raised 0.1 percentage points from December).

Post-meeting, Powell released strong hawkish signals: emphasizing no rate cuts if inflation doesn't sustain its decline, while mentioning the possibility of rate hikes!

As mentioned in the previous analysis, my judgment on the market trend is relatively pessimistic, with one core reason being concerns that this meeting would bring more bearish news on top of no rate cuts. As expected, my concerns came true.

Bitcoin reacted early, accelerating after breaking below the 73,000 support level, currently oscillating around 70,000 support [see Chart 1]

Overall, Bitcoin still has some support here. There might be a spike down breaking 70,000, but there's a small rebound requirement. The probability of retracing upward to confirm trendline breakdown is still relatively high, with the current position around 74,000 [see Chart 2]

Looking at larger timeframes, daily divergence has already formed, the 2-day engulfing pattern of one yin swallowing three yangs—these all point to expectations that this rebound may be topping. Therefore, small rebounds aren't recommended for entry [see Chart 3]

Operationally, if you followed our recommendations and locked in profits by reducing positions in the 74,000-75,000 range, you can patiently wait for support opportunities at the bottom edge of the descending flag, positioned around 66,000. This offers both offensive and defensive advantages with high reward-to-risk ratios.

However, pay attention to this: if the flag pattern's bottom edge breaks effectively, there will be a small waterfall, with new lows being highly probable. The 58,000-59,000 range will be a better opportunity to catch the rebound!

Operational Recommendation: Wait for a retest at 74,000 USD, consider exiting, then re-enter at lower levels.

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH

BTC-5,06%

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橙子研究院

2026-03-17 18:11:48

【Fed Rate Decision Approaching, Will BTC Reverse Course?】

After a series of small bullish steps, BTC has finally reached the top of the descending flag channel near the 75000 resistance zone—an important pressure level we've mentioned several times. As expected, it encountered resistance at the highs, currently leaving a small upper wick. 【See Chart 1】

From the 4-hour timeframe, the pullback from highs shows a rather obvious divergence, and the price action needs a correction and consolidation.

However, is this the end of this rebound? We need to focus on whether the daily close can hold above 75000, this critical level. If it can close above and consolidate, the market will likely move toward 80000. If it continues to trade below 75000, the risk of a top will increase significantly.

We need to pay close attention to the support at 73000. If this level is effectively broken on a downside move, the probability of this rebound ending is very high! 【See Chart 2】

From a personal subjective perspective, I'm leaning more bearish. First, after touching the important resistance level, there was no clean breakthrough; instead, the price fell back into the flag pattern, consuming too much bullish strength.

Second, the Federal Reserve rate decision meeting is on the 19th. A rate cut is basically impossible at this meeting, and instead, we might hear negative news due to inflation caused by war-driven oil price increases.

BTC has also risen quite a bit recently. Once bearish catalysts emerge and the stock market falls, BTC's downside will be even more severe!

Therefore, at the current stage, focus on defense. Avoid overconfidence and reckless gains-chasing. Don't chase rallies or panic sell!

Trading Strategy: Currently hold spot positions, use 73000 as a defense level, and plan to exit in batches above 78000 for swing trading.

#美联储3月议息会议 $BTC #比特币突破7.5万美元 $ETH

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