U.S.-Iran ceasefire drives Bitcoin higher—will this be a short-term rebound or the start of a new bull market?

BTC4,74%
ETH6,65%
XRP5,8%
SOL6,35%

Gate News message: Driven by the impact of a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, the cryptocurrency market saw a clear rebound. U.S. President Trump announced a pause in military action against Iran and said the two sides have started negotiations for long-term peace. Boosted by this, Bitcoin briefly broke above $72,700, then pulled back to about $71,695, with a 24-hour gain of 4.3%. Ethereum rose by around 6% to $2,238, and major assets such as XRP and Solana moved higher in sync, bringing the overall market gain to nearly 4%.

This rally is closely tied to easing geopolitical risk. Expectations for the Strait of Hormuz to resume shipping reduced uncertainty in the energy market; oil-price volatility also steadied, and risk-asset sentiment warmed accordingly. Analyst Nick Ruck noted that the ceasefire agreement boosted market risk appetite in the short term, causing funds to flow back into crypto assets such as Bitcoin. However, whether this event-driven surge has staying power remains highly uncertain.

Zeus Research analyst Dominick John believes this rebound is more like a “short-term liquidity push.” Without sustained expectations of rate cuts, a continued expansion of liquidity, and ongoing inflows of institutional capital (such as ETFs), it will be difficult for the market to develop into a long-term bull run. At the same time, interest-rate pressure and potential conflict risks may still limit upside. If the ceasefire is implemented less than expected or the situation escalates again, market sentiment could quickly reverse.

Looking ahead, while the Bitcoin price has rebounded, it still remains in a phase dominated by macro factors. Investors should watch subsequent U.S. economic data, shifts in policy direction, and changes in the Middle East situation. Near-term volatility may increase, while the long-term trend will still depend on the stability of the liquidity environment and global risk appetite.

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