IMF Cuts Global Growth to 3.1%, Warns of Recession Risk as Bitcoin Slides to $74K

Gate News message, April 15 — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.4% on April 14, warning that the world economy risks falling into recession if the US-Iran conflict escalates and oil prices remain elevated through 2027. Bitcoin has slid to around $74,000, down sharply from its $126,000 peak amid deteriorating macroeconomic conditions.

The IMF outlined three scenarios for the global economy. In the worst-case scenario, growth could drop to 2.0%—a level seen only during major crises like the 2009 financial crisis and 2020 COVID pandemic. Oil could average $110 in 2026 and rise to $125 in 2027; inflation could exceed 6%, and Europe’s gas prices could surge up to 200%. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated that the Gulf situation is “potentially much, much larger” than Trump’s tariff wave from a year ago, with downside risks clearly dominating the outlook. Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that if the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues for 6–12 months, a recession becomes almost unavoidable.

Global debt has reached a record $348 trillion, having increased by $29 trillion in 2025 alone. Since 2017, total debt has jumped over $120 trillion, driven by repeated crises, heavy government spending, and rising deficits. Meanwhile, the M2 money supply hit an all-time high of $22.7 trillion. The tightening liquidity environment, combined with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at 3.5%–3.75% instead of cutting them, has reduced capital availability for risk assets. Over the past six months, major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin have fallen approximately 50%, with some altcoins down 80%–90% from peak levels.