Bitcoin’s fourth halving rally is slowing down, analysts say: BTC may have entered a “new normal”

Investment firm Galaxy analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that compared with the previous three cycles, this Bitcoin (BTC) halving cycle’s performance is clearly worse than in the past. As market volatility has decreased and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved—changing the existing capital momentum—the market may already have entered an entirely new normal.

Bitcoin’s fourth halving cycle saw a surge far below historical records

Investment firm Galaxy Global Research Head Alex Thorn’s analysis shows that since Bitcoin halved in April 2024, the price action compared with the cycles triggered by 2012, 2016, and 2020 currently shows significantly lower volatility and less room for upside. Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 on October 5, 2025, but compared with the roughly $63,000 price at the 2024 halving, the increase was only 97%.

cycle 4 dramatically underperforming prior cycles

is this the new normal? or is it the new normal (until it isn’t)? pic.twitter.com/Y26fWAz24u

— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) April 19, 2026

Looking back at historical data, Bitcoin surged about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a peak of $1,163; the 2016 cycle rose about 2,950%, topping out at $19,891; while after the 2020 halving, there was a gain of about 761%.

Volatility has narrowed sharply, and the Bitcoin market is seeing a “new normal”?

On this phenomenon, Thorn said, “The performance of the fourth cycle has dramatically lagged behind the earlier cycles.” He also raised the question of whether this is the market’s new normal or merely a temporary situation. The persistently declining volatility in Bitcoin’s prior halving cycles suggests that traditional market momentum has long since changed, and the four-year cycle pattern may no longer be what it used to be.

（Arthur Hayes on the uselessness of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle: U.S.-China accelerating money printing crowns BTC the king of commodities）

U.S. spot ETFs jump-start the bull market early, reversing the traditional Bitcoin four-year cycle

However, some market participants have put forward different views on this analysis. Critics noted that simply evaluating post-halving performance would overlook the special circumstances in which an all-time high was already set ahead of the April 2024 halving. In March 2024—which is the month before the April halving—Bitcoin had already broken through the $70,000 mark and set an all-time high at the time.

The main catalyst for this rally was the U.S. officially approving spot Bitcoin ETF listings in January 2024. Market participants believe that this historic abnormality—Bitcoin setting an all-time high before the halving—has in practice introduced bias into the price performance data for the current cycle.

Wall Street investment banks are bullish on Bitcoin in 2026, with upside to $150k

Besides the smaller increase, Bitcoin’s downside has also narrowed noticeably. According to research from Fidelity Digital Assets, as volatility declines, Bitcoin’s pullbacks have become more mild. Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright said that in past Bitcoin bear markets, the drawdowns typically ranged between 80% and 90%.

However, Bitcoin has recently dropped from above $125,000, its historical peak, to $60,000—a decline of only slightly more than 50%—and is expected to gradually recover starting in 2026. Currently, BTC has fallen from last Friday’s high of 78K to trade around 74K, and a Bernstein report from Wall Street investment bank said that the current Bitcoin correction is not a structural problem, but rather driven by fluctuations in market confidence. It also stated that by the end of 2026, the Bitcoin price will be above $150,000.

（JPMorgan launches Bitcoin structured notes: combines the four-year cycle, bets on a bull market in 2028）

This article Bitcoin’s fourth halving rally is slowing down; analysts: BTC may already have entered a “new normal” first appeared on Lian News ABMedia.