Why Has Bitcoin Price Surge Become the Market Focus? ADP data shows that US private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November, far below the expected increase of 10,000, sparking expectations of rate cuts. The Trump administration suddenly canceled interviews with Fed chair candidates, leading the market to speculate that the aggressively pro-rate-cut Hassett may replace Powell. CME data shows an 89% chance of a rate cut next week.
Trump’s Surprise Move: Canceling Interviews, Hassett’s Chances Surge
The second key factor behind Bitcoin’s price surge is Trump’s unexpected action. On December 3, investors noticed a major headline—the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House had canceled scheduled interviews with candidates on the Fed chair shortlist this week, hinting that Trump may have already chosen a successor.
The market speculates that Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser considered to be in favor of aggressive rate cuts, is now more likely to replace current chair Powell. The recent weakening of the dollar and a gold rebound are also driven by speculation that Hassett could succeed Powell when his term ends in May next year and push for more rate cuts.
Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank’s New York branch, stated, “Hassett’s resume is very strong. The only question is, can he remain independent from White House pressure?” This question touches on the market’s core concern: if the Fed loses its independence, monetary policy could become overly loose, eventually leading to uncontrollable inflation.
According to the Financial Times, bond investors have expressed concerns to the US Treasury, fearing that Hassett might aggressively cut rates to suit Trump’s preferences. Trump has publicly criticized Powell’s hawkish stance and repeatedly called for rate cuts to stimulate the economy. If Hassett does take over, the market expects a much more aggressive downward rate cycle.
Why the Combination of Trump and ADP Surprises Drives Bitcoin
Rate cut expectations rise: Weak ADP data and the possibility of Hassett taking over have led the market to expect more and faster rate cuts than previously thought.
Dollar weakens: Expectations of a looser monetary policy have pushed the dollar index down, benefitting dollar-denominated Bitcoin.
Risk appetite increases: In a rate-cut environment, investors seek higher-yielding assets, and capital flows into the crypto market.
ADP Data Shock Spurs Rate Cut Expectations
Why is Bitcoin’s price rising? The primary cause is the ADP jobs data crash. ADP data showed that US private sector employment fell by 32,000 in November, far below economists’ expectations for an increase of 10,000. This is the biggest drop since March 2023 and the second largest since early 2020. The data shocked the market, revealing the US labor market is quickly deteriorating.
Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau 1982, said: “ADP has declined in three of the past four months and in four of the past six months. While ADP and nonfarm payrolls don’t always align, it does reflect the trend, and the current trend is clearly weakening.” This persistent pattern of deterioration is more worrying than a single data point, as it suggests a real economic slowdown rather than statistical noise.
ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted: “With consumers becoming more cautious and macro uncertainty rising, hiring continues to show significant volatility. November’s slowdown was broad-based, with small businesses shrinking the most.” Small businesses are typically leading indicators in the jobs market, as they are most sensitive to changes in the economic environment.
After the ADP data release, gold prices surged, with gold spiking to $4,241.60 per ounce. RJO Futures Senior Market Strategist Bob Haberkorn said: “ADP data missed expectations, and with silver hitting a historic high during the session, gold found support.” However, gold then dipped sharply, falling to around $4,195 per ounce at the low, as some investors took profits off the table.
The CME “FedWatch” tool now shows an 89% probability of a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting, and major brokerages predict a cut at the December 9-10 policy meeting. For non-yielding Bitcoin, a drop in interest rates is typically positive, as it lowers the opportunity cost of holding cash and bonds, making risk assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
Bollinger Band Width Drops Below 100, Technicals Turn Bullish
(Source: Trading View)
Technically, Bitcoin’s rally is also strongly supported. A rare technical signal that appeared before Bitcoin’s explosive surge at the end of 2023 has emerged again: the Bollinger Band Width indicator has dropped below 100 and triggered a green alert, possibly shifting Bitcoin’s price forecast for the remainder of December.
Macro strategist Gert van Lagen observed that each trigger of this indicator has been followed by a direct parabolic rally, raising expectations for a possible 40% surge before year-end. When the indicator drops below 100, it signals extremely compressed volatility, which usually precedes a major directional move. The last green light was in November 2023, after which Bitcoin doubled within four months.
Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap, recently stated at the Binance Blockchain Conference that Bitcoin only reached a local high of about $126,000 in October, and the cycle peak has not yet arrived. She added: “We will see a market recovery in Q1 2026. Based on a comprehensive analysis of macro indicators, February and March will usher in another bull market.”
After Breaking $93,000, Target Is $112,000
(Source: Trading View)
Bitcoin is still facing major resistance near $92,500 to $93,000, which is the key barrier between the current recovery and a broader bull market continuation. The price has returned to the middle of the Bollinger Band structure and is now testing the upper part of the volatility envelope, suggesting upward momentum is building after November’s downtrend.
The 200-period moving average near $96,000 represents the next resistance level. If the price can decisively break through this level, it will open the door to a larger bullish crossover zone projected around $112,000. The RSI indicator is climbing above 60 with a positive slope, signaling renewed buying pressure, but is not yet in the overbought zone—supporting the view that Bitcoin still has room to rise if it can turn $93,000 into support.
Why is Bitcoin’s price rising? In summary, the combination of weak ADP data fueling rate cut expectations, Trump’s sudden cancellation of interviews implying Hassett’s succession, and the rare technical signal of the Bollinger Band Width dropping below 100 have jointly propelled Bitcoin to break through key resistance.
