Golden Finance reports that 10x Research published an article on the X platform stating that Bitcoin is once again at the intersection of Fed policy, the movement of the dollar, and a liquidity narrative that is far more complex than most investors imagine. While the probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 84%, history shows that the key is not the rate cut itself, but the subsequent policy statements.
At the same time, a rarely triggered dollar indicator has just lit up, marking only the fifth time in Bitcoin's history, and its past results are not reassuring. Many have pointed out that the Treasury General Account (TGA) could release more than $600 billion in liquidity, but the last time a similar situation occurred, Bitcoin still fell significantly and reacted much later.
After several Fed officials expressed support for a rate cut on December 10, the implied probability of a rate cut in the Treasury futures market has risen to 84%, while the probability of holding steady in January is seen at 65%.
However, as we saw on October 29, the more critical variable is not the rate cut itself, but rather the forward guidance that follows. The Fed may choose to cut rates again, but without providing a truly dovish guidance, especially in the case where this would become the third consecutive rate cut, its boosting effect on risk assets will be significantly weakened.
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