William Blair lowered its revenue and earnings forecasts for Coinbase on Wednesday, citing weaker-than-expected crypto trading activity. The firm cut its 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates by 12% and 13%, respectively, and reduced adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 34% for both years, yet maintained an Outperform rating on the stock. Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated the crypto bear market is nearing a bottom as bitcoin prices stabilize and new revenue streams emerge. The revision reflects expectations that Wall Street will continue lowering near-term forecasts, though Coinbase's earnings are projected to bottom out before the end of this year and recover in 2027.
William Blair Cuts 2026-2027 Revenue and EBITDA Forecasts
William Blair reduced its 2026 revenue estimate for Coinbase by 12% and its 2027 estimate by 13%. Adjusted EBITDA forecasts were lowered by 34% for both years. The firm expects total trading volume on Coinbase to fall approximately 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027. Analysts wrote that they expect Wall Street to continue lowering expectations in the near term, but believe Coinbase's earnings should bottom out before the end of this year and then recover in 2027. "We think investors should stay involved in Coinbase as spot crypto volume potentially bottoms alongside bitcoin and new revenue drivers emerge," Jeffrey and Choudhury stated.
Analysts Cite Base Layer 2 and Emerging Revenue Streams
William Blair highlighted Coinbase's expanding business mix as a reason for optimism. Analysts pointed to retail derivatives and prediction markets as emerging revenue contributors. The firm stated that Coinbase's Base Layer 2 network could become a major earnings driver through trading activity, sequencer fees, and a potential future token launch. Jeffrey and Choudhury noted that Base positions Coinbase to benefit from the growing tokenized real-world asset market, which The Block estimates currently sits at over $22.5 billion. The analysts argued this cycle differs from the 2022 bear market due to the growth of spot bitcoin ETFs, greater institutional participation, and more crypto-friendly regulations.
Coinbase Stock Performance and Trading Volume Projections
Coinbase shares were up roughly 1% on the day to $162.63 in early Wednesday trading. The stock has fallen around 32% year-to-date, alongside bitcoin's roughly 26% decline over the same period. William Blair expects total trading volume on Coinbase to fall about 44% this year to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027.
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FAQ
What did William Blair do to its Coinbase forecasts on Wednesday?
William Blair lowered its 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates for Coinbase by 12% and 13%, respectively, and reduced adjusted EBITDA forecasts by 34% for both years, citing weaker-than-expected crypto trading activity.
Why does William Blair maintain an Outperform rating despite lowering forecasts?
Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury stated the crypto bear market is nearing a bottom as bitcoin prices stabilize, and they expect new revenue streams such as Base Layer 2, retail derivatives, and prediction markets to contribute to Coinbase's recovery starting in 2027.
How has Coinbase stock performed year-to-date?
Coinbase shares have fallen around 32% year-to-date to $162.63 in early Wednesday trading, alongside bitcoin's roughly 26% decline over the same period.
