According to Polymarket, the probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will step down as a Fed governor by May 30 plummeted to 9% on April 30, down 25% in 24 hours. The odds of him leaving by December 31 fell to 66%, down 11% in the same period. Powell stated this morning that he would continue serving as a Fed governor for “some time” after leaving his chair role, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said such a move would be “extraordinary” and at odds with Powell’s stated commitment to institutional norms.
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