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Polymarket: Probability of Strait of Hormuz Closure Before August 31 Rises to 21%

Prediction Market

2026-07-21 00:00:59

POLYMARKET-0.87%

According to Polymarket prediction market data as of July 21, the probability of Strait of Hormuz closure before August 31 rose to 21%, up from 11% at Monday's low; the probability before September 30 reached 26%. Yemen-based Ansar Allah announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia aimed at disrupting crude oil export flows, with the affected corridor handling over 4.5 million barrels daily. The prediction contract settlement is based on vessel arrival data from the IMF's PortWatch platform; the contract resolves to "yes" if the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals falls to 10 or below on any date through contract expiration.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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