Major sportsbooks including Draftkings and Betmgm saw their largest remaining World Cup outright liability erased when Spain defeated France 2-0 in Tuesday's semifinal. Betmgm reported that 94% of semifinal qualification money backed France, while Fanduel said France had attracted the most money among remaining teams before kickoff. The elimination delivered a favorable result for operators after France represented their most concentrated exposure, while prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi recorded combined winner-market volume exceeding $5.5 billion as the tournament drove record trading activity across the sector.
Betmgm Reports 94% Semifinal Money Backed France
Betmgm's exposure was concentrated on the semifinal itself, with the operator reporting that 94% of the money in its qualification market backed France to reach the final. Draftkings and Betmgm both identified France as their largest remaining liability in the outright winner market before the match. Mbappé was the most popular anytime goalscorer at Draftkings and Betmgm during the tournament, with Betmgm stating that wagers on him to score against Spain outnumbered those on any other player by five to one. He and his team finished the semifinal without a goal.
The operators did not disclose the dollar value of the liabilities erased by Spain's victory. The imbalance means losing France outright tickets and unsuccessful Mbappé props remained with the books, while bets on Spain and other winning outcomes had to be paid.
Polymarket and Kalshi World Cup Winner Markets Surpass $5.5 Billion Volume
Polymarket's winner market has generated approximately $4.28 billion in trading volume, while Kalshi's corresponding market has surpassed $1.22 billion. France had become the prediction markets' consensus favorite well before the semifinal. On July 5, it traded at a 35.4% implied probability on Polymarket, with more than $94.5 million in team-specific volume, while Kalshi priced France at a nearly identical 35.5%.
Polymarket's rules state that a team's contract resolves immediately to "No" once it becomes impossible for that team to win the tournament, making France's semifinal defeat the settlement trigger for its outstanding winner contracts. The platforms operate differently from sportsbooks—users generally trade yes-or-no contracts against one another, while the exchanges generate revenue through fees rather than retaining every losing customer position. A single dollar may also be traded repeatedly before settlement, meaning prediction-market volume is not equivalent to money staked at a sportsbook.
Prediction Markets Record $44.8 Billion June Trading Volume
Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US recorded a combined $44.8 billion in June trading volume, up 75% from May, as the World Cup became prediction markets' largest sustained sports-liquidity event. France's defeat shows the divide between the two models: sportsbooks benefited from the public backing the wrong favorite, while prediction exchanges profited from traders continuing to buy and sell the uncertainty, regardless of who they picked as the victor.
FAQ
What percentage of Betmgm's semifinal qualification money backed France?
Betmgm reported that 94% of the money in its qualification market backed France to reach the final before Spain defeated France 2-0 in Tuesday's semifinal.
How much trading volume did Polymarket and Kalshi World Cup winner markets generate?
Polymarket's winner market has generated approximately $4.28 billion in trading volume, while Kalshi's corresponding market has surpassed $1.22 billion.
What was France's implied probability on Polymarket on July 5?
On July 5, France traded at a 35.4% implied probability on Polymarket with more than $94.5 million in team-specific volume, while Kalshi priced France at a nearly identical 35.5%.
