FIFA declared the 2026 World Cup free of suspicious betting activity on July 21 after monitoring all 104 matches, stating no fixture manipulation occurred. One day later, the Council of Europe disclosed that the Group of Copenhagen had issued seven Yellow Notices during independent monitoring of the tournament, which saw an estimated $240 billion in total wagers. The operation marked the first time prediction markets received continuous integrity surveillance at a major international sporting event, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket recorded unprecedented trading volumes alongside traditional betting markets.
Group of Copenhagen Issues Seven Yellow Notices Across Tournament Monitoring
The Group of Copenhagen issued seven Yellow Notices during its independent monitoring operation, according to the Council of Europe's disclosure on July 22. The network placed 15 matches under enhanced monitoring, particularly during the final group-stage round, and assessed 12 major controversies for potential integrity risks.
Yellow represents the lowest alert level above green on the Group's four-tier scale, and no orange or red notices were issued. The Group describes Yellow Notices as covering "unexplained fluctuations in odds, rumours on social media or source information," and states they do not amount to proof of manipulation. FIFA said task-force members shared and assessed alerts before reaching its final conclusion.
The Group of Copenhagen estimates that roughly $240 billion was wagered across the tournament, approximately double the amount recorded at Qatar 2022. Fourteen national platforms participated in the operation, drawn from an international network of more than 45 members. Analysts examined betting markets, odds movements, withdrawn betting offers, open-source information and social-media intelligence, while also monitoring people previously suspected of involvement in sports manipulation.
The Athletic, citing sources briefed on the report, reported that flagged cases related to red cards, large transactions and new markets. Those included the red card shown to South Africa's Themba Zwane against Mexico, roughly $4.8 million traded on Polymarket against a Spain win over Cape Verde in a group-stage match that finished goalless, and the overturning of a one-match suspension for United States forward Folarin Balogun. The Group has formally asked FIFA for a written explanation of the Balogun decision.
The Council's public summary does not identify Kalshi, Polymarket, ADI Predictstreet or any other platform as the source of a Yellow Notice, nor does it reveal how the seven notices were resolved or whether any information was referred to regulators.
Prediction Markets Record Nearly $2 Billion in World Cup Final Trading
Kalshi and Polymarket recorded nearly $2 billion in final-specific trading, according to tournament data. Combined monthly volume across the leading platforms rose 75% to a $44.8 billion record in June. Tournament-wide, $5.81 billion moved across 52 World Cup events by mid-July.
The tournament marked the first time the Group of Copenhagen continuously monitored prediction markets during a major international sporting event. The Council said the platforms create new challenges because users can trade on a wide range of incidents, sometimes anonymously and through payment methods that are difficult to trace.
Both the Council of Europe and the Group of Copenhagen are members of FIFA's Integrity Task Force, which also includes the FBI, INTERPOL, UNODC, the DOJ, Sportradar, IBIA and Genius Sports alongside the confederations.
FIFA Partners With ADI Predictstreet Amid Regulatory Criticism
FIFA brought a prediction market into its sponsorship program for the first time through ADI Predictstreet. When announcing the agreement, FIFA said its partner would use real-time suspicious-trading surveillance and structured information-sharing systems. ADI Predictstreet later opened to US traders.
Council of Europe Secretary General Alain Berset criticized that relationship before the final, arguing that markets involving cards, passes and other player-controlled incidents create an "open door to fraud." He urged FIFA to begin building a new integrity framework for the 2030 tournament.
FIFA's clean bill remains its official conclusion, and the seven notices should not be presented as proof that matches were fixed. Their disclosure nevertheless exposes how little the public knows about the alerts generated during the tournament and establishes prediction markets as a permanent part of international football's integrity surveillance.
FAQ
What did FIFA announce about the 2026 World Cup on July 21?
FIFA declared the 2026 World Cup free of suspicious betting activity on July 21 after its Integrity Task Force monitored all 104 matches in real time. The governing body said information collected from its partners produced no indication that any fixture had been manipulated.
What did the Group of Copenhagen disclose on July 22?
The Council of Europe disclosed on July 22 that the Group of Copenhagen had issued seven Yellow Notices during its independent monitoring operation. The network also placed 15 matches under enhanced monitoring, particularly during the final group-stage round, and assessed 12 major controversies for potential integrity risks.
How much trading volume did prediction markets record during the World Cup?
Kalshi and Polymarket recorded nearly $2 billion in final-specific trading. Combined monthly volume across the leading platforms rose 75% to a $44.8 billion record in June, while tournament-wide $5.81 billion moved across 52 World Cup events by mid-July.
