Gate News message, April 29 — Thomas Hulick, CEO of Strategy Asset Managers, said energy prices have become the key variable in the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory as markets widely expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Open Market Committee to hold interest rates steady. Futures markets show oil price expectations above $85 per barrel, which continues to push up inflation expectations and exacerbate intraday volatility in U.S. Treasury yields.
With Middle East tensions involving Iran and potential Strait of Hormuz blockade concerns remaining unresolved, bond markets will remain sensitive to inflation risks, Hulick noted. “This is why we are still hearing discussions about possible rate hikes later this year,” he added. For yields to normalize, oil prices may need to decline to around $70 per barrel, after which inflation expectations should ease, allowing Treasury yields to return to more fundamental levels.
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