Gate News message, April 15 — Chinese aluminum (industrial metal) exports are expected to surge in coming months as global buyers seek alternative sources amid supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf. The conflict in Iran, now in its seventh week, has disrupted supply from a region accounting for about 9% of global output, while China, the world’s largest producer, faces a six-year high in local inventories.
March exports reached 485,000 tonnes, up 13% from February, with first-quarter shipments totaling 1.46 million tonnes, 6.5% ahead of last year’s pace. International aluminum prices are showing their biggest premium to the Chinese market since 2022. Beijing Aladdiny analyst Zhu Liangmin predicts annual sales could match or exceed the 2024 record of 6.7 million tonnes due to war-driven demand, with overseas orders for automotive and packaging products expected to increase noticeably in April.
Aluminum Corp of China’s trading unit announced on May 31 an urgent sale of 510 tonnes of alloy to a key Thai customer, including a rare 10-tonne air shipment. Shandong Aize analyst Zhang Meng expects a spike in semi-finished product exports in May and June. Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts smelting profits to remain near all-time highs, though rising stockpiles may cap local price increases and higher shipping costs could limit trade growth.
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