BTC drops 0.75% over 15 minutes: Oil prices plunge amid US-Iran ceasefire news and a tug-of-war over Fed rate-hike expectations

From 14:15 to 14:30 (UTC) on July 27, 2026, BTC saw a sharp drop of 0.75% within 15 minutes. The price fell from 65,395.9 USDT to 64,878.5 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.79%. The daily candle was nearly flat (-0.03%), with trading volume of only 377.4 BTC. Ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision meeting, the market was characterized by thin liquidity, and both bulls and bears were temporarily balanced.

The main drivers behind this move are a two-way struggle between macro policy expectations and geopolitical risk. On one hand, after pausing attacks for a second consecutive day, the Iran–Israel front saw international oil prices drop by more than 4%, easing inflation expectations tied to an escalation of the conflict and giving risk assets a brief window to catch their breath. On the other hand, markets generally expect the Fed to hold rates steady at the July meeting, but the possibility of a September rate hike has started to emerge; meanwhile, the fragility of the Iran–Israel ceasefire has been highlighted (oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz hitting mines and explosions, Iran’s threatened retaliation), which has capped BTC’s upward momentum.

At the same time, pressure from miners poses a mid-term supply-side concern. After Bitcoin’s halving, mining revenue declined. Bitdeer has sold all of its June output, and hash rate fluctuations reflect miners’ squeezed economic profitability. Safe-haven capital has flowed into gold; the gold price has moved back above $4,110, creating a competitive relationship for funds versus BTC. With multiple factors layered together in a low-liquidity environment, price becomes more sensitive to macro signals.

Current BTC is quoted at about $65,327, with a 24-hour rise of 1.00%. Near-term support to watch is the 24h low at $64,619, and the resistance level is $65,744. Since trading volume is extremely low and order book depth is very shallow, volatility risk is elevated. Going forward, focus on the Fed’s statement wording, the durability of the Iran–Israel ceasefire, and miners’ sell-pressure dynamics. It’s advisable to stay cautious until direction becomes clear.