BTC dips slightly by 0.01% over 4 hours: geopolitical risk heats up while Fed policy expectations support short-term range trading

From 04:00 to 08:00 UTC on July 29, 2026, BTC traded within the range of 63,598.9–63,765.5 USDT. The volatility was 0.26%, and the return % slipped slightly by 0.01%. Despite tighter short-term fluctuations, BTC is still up about 1.47% over the past 24 hours, bouncing from a $62,744.9 low to around $64,433.4 as the market tries to balance risk-off sentiment with expectations for macro policy.

The main driver behind this move is the escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict. Iran’s “raids-style” missile attack on U.S. forces was intercepted, tensions flared again across the Middle East, and gold moved to test the $4,000 threshold. As a digital safe-haven asset, BTC found support from demand for risk hedging. At the same time, expectations for the Fed’s July meeting are that rates will be kept unchanged (3.50%–3.75%), and the outlook for no near-term rate hikes gives risk assets some breathing room.

Second, Iran warned that a conflict in the Strait of Hormuz could expand, worsening global energy supply concerns. WTI crude remains near its highs at $101.85 per barrel. Rising inflation expectations strengthen BTC’s anti-inflation narrative. On the technical side, a weekly-level RSI bullish divergence has appeared; downside momentum is slowing. Analysts believe the cyclical downtrend is maturing and that the bottoming phase may have already started. However, short-term signals have shifted into overbought conditions and a death cross, 4-hour moving averages remain bearish, and rebound strength appears limited.

Volatility risk remains, so attention should be paid to the Fed’s interest rate decision and the wording in Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference remarks, the July 31 GDP and PCE inflation data, and how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz evolves. Key support levels to watch are $64,026 (the current low) down to $62,745. Resistance is at $64,580 to the $65,000 psychological level. There is near-term pullback pressure; it’s advisable to monitor changes in filled orders and guidance from macro news.