Bitcoin (BTC) traders are monitoring the July 14 US inflation report as markets price in 2.6 Federal Reserve rate hikes over coming quarters, according to crypto trading firm BIT. The inflation data arrives as Bitcoin has stabilized near $63,000 after recent volatility, leaving macroeconomic signals in greater control of short-term price direction. BIT's latest market update indicates that since the rate cut outlook that supported Bitcoin's fifth bull market in 2023, investor expectations have shifted toward tighter monetary policy starting September 2025, creating a more challenging environment for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
BIT Warns CPI Above 4.0% Could Pressure Bitcoin as Fed Policy Tightens
BIT's market update stated that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller's comments this week indicated policymakers are at a crossroads, which the firm interpreted as a more hawkish environment. The report noted: "Tonight's CPI report is critical for Bitcoin. An inflation reading above 4.0% would likely reinforce expectations for further tightening and add to downside pressure."
At the last FOMC meeting, rates were held at 3.50% to 3.75%. Minutes from the meeting revealed a divide among officials on future hikes, with some raising concerns about AI-induced inflation. The latest survey by the New York Fed estimated one-year inflation expectations at 3.7%, the highest since September 2023, after May's CPI reached a 3-year high of 4.2%.
Bitcoin Trades Near $63,000 After Recovery From $58,000 Low
Bitcoin is trading near $63,000 with little change in 24 hours but down approximately 1% in the last week. July is historically seen as a positive month for the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin recovered from a low near $58,000 to briefly climb above $64,000 before giving back parts of those gains as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran impacted the market.
CryptoQuant Bull Score Remains at 30 as Strategy Sells 3,588 BTC
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index stands at 30, which is in bearish territory. Analysts have stated that a reading above 60 is needed before any rebound counts as more than a bear-market bounce.
Strategy recently disclosed that it sold 3,588 BTC to fund dividend payments. Bitcoin dipped by approximately $1,000 after the Strategy announcement but recouped those losses within hours. According to BIT, this suggested that much of the selling had already been anticipated by the market.
FAQ
What is the significance of the July 14 CPI report for Bitcoin?
According to BIT, the July 14 US inflation report is critical for Bitcoin because an inflation reading above 4.0% would likely reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening and add downside pressure to the cryptocurrency.
How many Fed rate hikes are markets currently pricing in?
Markets are pricing in 2.6 Federal Reserve rate hikes over the coming quarters, according to BIT's market update.
What is CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index currently showing?
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index is at 30, which is in bearish territory. Analysts state that a reading above 60 is needed before any rebound counts as more than a bear-market bounce.
