Bitcoin surged above $65,000 after US-Iran military tensions eased for a second day, ahead of the Fed's Wednesday interest rate decision. Ethereum rose over 4% in the last 24 hours to above $1,960, while Solana and XRP gained 1-2%, as oil prices fell approximately 5%. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin has entered a price zone historically considered below its true value based on the MVRV Z-Score metric, though the complete capitulation process seen at previous bear market lows has not yet occurred.
CryptoQuant Analyst Reports Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score at Multi-Year Low
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated in an article that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score, a benchmark for valuation, has fallen to a multi-year low but remains above the negative zone. The analyst said that Bitcoin has entered a price zone historically considered below its true value, but that the complete capitulation process seen at the lows of previous bear markets has not yet occurred.
According to the analyst, the data shows that the BTC MVRV Z-Score is currently around 0.42, well below its historical average of 1.7, but has not yet entered negative territory, indicating widespread selling.
Bitcoin Seven-Day Profit/Loss Pattern Turns Positive
The analyst noted that BTC's seven-day realized profit and loss pattern has turned from negative to positive. This indicates a decrease in on-chain selling pressure. However, according to the analyst, this alone is not considered sufficient to confirm the start of a new bull cycle.
Analyst Identifies Undervalued Stabilization Phase, Not Cycle Bottom
Analyst Axel Adler noted that while the recovery in profit/loss indicates reduced selling pressure, the MVRV Z-Score has not yet fallen below zero to trigger capitulation selling. According to the analyst, this means Bitcoin is currently closer to an "undervalued stabilization phase" rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.
According to the analyst, for a bottom to form and a sustained uptrend to begin in the market, it is not enough for selling pressure to decrease or for the market to trade below its value. In addition, strong on-chain demand, increased profitability, and aggressive accumulation by long-term investors are necessary.
FAQ
What caused Bitcoin to rise above $65,000?
Bitcoin surged above $65,000 after military clashes between the US and Iran eased for a second consecutive day, which also had a positive impact on altcoins while international oil prices fell approximately 5%.
What is Bitcoin's current MVRV Z-Score according to CryptoQuant?
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler reported that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score is currently around 0.42, well below its historical average of 1.7, indicating the cryptocurrency has entered a price zone historically considered below its true value, though it has not yet entered negative territory.
Why does the analyst say Bitcoin has not reached a cycle bottom?
Analyst Axel Adler stated that while Bitcoin's seven-day realized profit and loss pattern has turned positive and the MVRV Z-Score indicates undervaluation, the metric has not fallen below zero to trigger capitulation selling, meaning Bitcoin is in an "undervalued stabilization phase" rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.
