Bitcoin rebounded to $65,178 on July 27, after a strong breakout above the $65,000 level. U.S. President Trump ordered the U.S. military to pause airstrike operations against Iran, ending 13 consecutive days of daily attacks. The FED interest rate decision is scheduled to be released on July 29, and all 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect it to remain unchanged, but federal funds futures indicate the probability of a rate hike is about 36%.
Trump Orders a Pause in Airstrikes Against Iran
Citing an Axios report that quoted two people familiar with the matter, after the military submitted a strike plan on July 25 (Friday), Trump did not approve execution and instructed the military not to launch the attack. Prior to that, Trump had approved Iran strike operations for 13 consecutive days. In an interview, Trump said he believes a “more sensible strategy” is “to reach an agreement with Iran.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump is “making room for negotiations.”
A U.S. official said American military officials privately warned Trump that continuing operations involves risks because the military has essentially exhausted the target list prepared earlier and is continuously drawing down its ammunition stockpiles (including interceptor missiles for air-defense systems in the Middle East region). A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran’s position is “responding to attacks with attacks.” If the attacks stop, Iran will also stop, adding that “this message has been delivered to the United States.”
A delegation from Oman arrived in Tehran on July 25 to negotiate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and regional sources said the talks have made progress.
FED July 29 Interest Rate Decision: All 104 Economists Expect No Change
(Source: CME Fed Watch)
The FED interest rate decision will be released on July 29 (Wednesday). The key interest rate has been kept between 3.50% and 3.75% over the past four meetings. All 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect it to be unchanged this time, including 78 who expect rates will remain unchanged through December. However, federal funds futures show a different signal: the probability of a rate hike was 13% one week ago, jumped to 38% last Friday, and is currently hovering around 36%.
FED Chair Kevin Warsh no longer hints at the next move, and no new projections will be released this time, leaving traders to speculate. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon said he believes the likelihood of a rate hike in July is low, but expects rate hikes for the rest of this year to total 60%, with a 40% chance of no hikes.
Inflation Factors and Bitcoin Market Backdrop: Trump’s New Tariff Policy
The key macro factors affecting Bitcoin and risk assets this week are:
Brent Crude Oil: It closed at $100.69 per barrel on July 23, the first time it has closed above $100 since May 26, with this month’s gain of more than 30%.
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield: It closed at 4.69% on Friday, the highest level since January 2025.
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield: It closed at 4.33% on Friday, above the 3.75% cap set by the FED.
New Tariffs: As of July 25, a 10%-12.5% import tariff on 60 trading partners takes effect (replacing the old tariffs rejected by the Supreme Court in February).
Bitcoin: It rebounded to $65,178 on July 27, but is still about 49% below the all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025.
FAQ
Why did Trump order a pause in airstrikes against Iran?
According to Axios, citing people familiar with the matter, Trump’s decision is driven by two considerations: making room for diplomatic negotiations, and warnings from U.S. military officials that continued action carries risks (the target list is basically exhausted, and ammunition stockpiles continue to be consumed). Under Oman’s mediation, U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks have already made progress. Iran has said that if the attacks stop, Iran will also stop related actions.
How are market expectations divided regarding the FED interest rate decision on July 29?
All 104 economists surveyed by Reuters expect no change this time (the 3.50%-3.75% range), but federal funds futures indicate the probability of a rate hike is about 36%, up from just 13% one week ago. This suggests traders’ concerns about a rate hike have clearly intensified, against the backdrop of oil prices breaking above $100 per barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.69%, the highest since January 2025.
How does Brent crude oil at $100 affect Bitcoin?
Oil prices breaking above $100 would raise inflation, reduce the FED’s room to cut rates, and push bond yields higher. When yields on safe assets reach 4.69%, the relative appeal of high-risk assets (including Bitcoin) declines. This is one of the main macro reasons why Bitcoin’s performance has been constrained this month.
