CLARITY 草案 membatasi hasil stablecoin, harga saham CRCL turun drastis 20% dalam sehari

Stablecoin issuer Circle (NYSE: CRCL) stock price dropped nearly 20% in a single day, attracting significant market attention. The latest draft of the U.S. Congress’s “CLARITY Act” is a major trigger. According to former Fox Business Channel reporter Eleanor Terrett, the draft proposes to prohibit stablecoin issuers from offering any form of passive income to users and restrict all designs that are economically or functionally equivalent to bank deposit interest.

Core Regulatory Logic of the CLARITY Act Draft

The draft of the CLARITY Act targets the mechanism by which stablecoin issuers redistribute reserve asset earnings to users. The regulatory direction reflects the long-term demands of the banking industry: if stablecoins can provide returns similar to deposit interest, they will directly compete with traditional deposit services, thereby affecting the overall capital flow structure of the financial system.

The bill is still in the draft and congressional negotiation stage, and the provisions have not been finalized. The current draft indicates that passive income directly linked to “coin balance” may be restricted, but rewards related to trading activity or liquidity provision may have exemptions. The bill currently applies only to domestic U.S. operators; foreign markets and decentralized finance (DeFi) are not within the scope of regulation.

Structural Pressures Facing Circle’s Business Model

Although USDC does not pay interest directly to holders, Circle’s core profit model and revenue mechanism are highly interconnected:

Reserve Asset Allocation: Circle invests USDC reserves in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds to earn interest income.

Profit Sharing Mechanism: Part of the interest is shared with Coinbase according to the agreement, which is then used to incentivize platform users.

Potential Blocking Risks: If the “interest transfer” pathway is cut off by the bill, USDC’s ability to attract funds will be directly diminished.

It is noteworthy that before this decline, CRCL’s stock price had risen from about $50 in February to over $130, a gain of more than 170%. Under high valuation conditions, policy negative news often significantly amplifies market corrections, leading to an overreaction.

Market Reaction and Subsequent Impact on Competition Landscape

Analysts generally point out that the sharp decline in CRCL’s stock price includes an element of overreaction. The USDC circulation volume continues to grow at a double-digit annual rate, and basic demand has not disappeared. The market is mainly re-pricing the policy uncertainty risk.

In terms of competition, Tether (USDT) recently announced that it has commissioned four major accounting firms to conduct a comprehensive audit. If increased transparency successfully builds institutional trust, it may attract some funds away from USDC, adding pressure on Circle’s market share. If the revenue restrictions only apply within the U.S., offshore stablecoin issuers or those with mechanisms designed with relative competitive advantages may benefit.

Frequently Asked Questions

What specific impact does the CLARITY Act draft have on Circle’s business model?

The draft proposes to restrict stablecoin issuers from offering any passive income linked to coin balances. The interest income earned from reserves and the profit-sharing arrangement with Coinbase may fall under these restrictions, directly compressing Circle’s core profit structure.

Does the sharp drop in CRCL’s stock price reflect a deterioration in business fundamentals?

Most analysts believe the decline includes an element of overreaction. USDC circulation continues to grow, and Circle’s business has not fundamentally deteriorated. The main factors are the re-pricing of policy uncertainty and technical correction after a gain of over 170% in CRCL’s stock price prior to the decline.

What is the current legislative progress of the CLARITY Act?

The CLARITY Act is still in the draft negotiation stage, and the provisions have not been finalized. The clauses related to earnings still have room for negotiation. The bill is not legally binding before it is officially passed, and the final wording remains to be observed.