July 24, 2026: The US-Iran military conflict has now entered its 13th day. On this day, US President Trump announced he is "seriously considering" relaunching large-scale military operations against Iran—on a scale that would surpass the previous "Operation Epic Fury." The US military has carried out airstrikes on targets inside Iran for the 13th consecutive night, while Iran has retaliated by striking US military facilities in Jordan and Kuwait.
This geopolitical shock has rapidly swept through global asset pricing. Brent crude oil futures settled at $100.69 per barrel, marking the first close above $100 since May. The US stock market’s "Magnificent Seven" tech index plunged 4.8% in a single day, wiping out $797 billion in market value—the largest one-day loss since the tariff shock in April 2025. The crypto market also came under pressure, with Bitcoin falling back to around $65,000 and total liquidations across the market reaching $251 million in the past 24 hours.
From the Strait of Hormuz to Nasdaq, from crude oil futures to crypto derivatives, the entire price transmission chain is being reactivated.
US-Iran Conflict Day 13: How Is the Risk Premium from Airstrikes to All-Out War Priced In?
As of July 24, the US military has launched strikes on Iranian military targets for 13 consecutive nights. In an interview with Axios, Trump said, "I am considering launching a large-scale strike—unprecedented in scale. I am close to making a decision." He also revealed that if the US requests, Israel "would join in two minutes."
The intensity and scope of the conflict are escalating in parallel. Yemen’s Houthi forces announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia and attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. This action has put both of the world’s critical oil transit routes—the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea—at risk of disruption. Just a day earlier, the US was deploying more troops, medical staff, and weaponry to the Middle East.
The market is not facing a single geopolitical event, but a continuously escalating conflict. Trump made it clear that Iran "hasn’t learned a deep enough lesson," signaling the potential for further military escalation. Iran, for its part, claims it is prepared to repel a US ground invasion. This "escalation option" itself is steadily driving up the risk premium.
Brent Crude Breaks $100: How Energy Supply Shocks Ignite Inflation Expectations
On July 23, Brent crude futures surged 7.04% to close at $100.69 per barrel, briefly touching a two-month high of $102 during the session. Since the start of July, Brent has climbed nearly 40%.
This rally is driven by a real supply shock. The Houthi attack on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea opened a new front in the conflict, further disrupting a key artery of global oil supply on top of the bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US-Iran standoff. Two of the world’s busiest shipping lanes are now simultaneously threatened.
Soaring energy prices are reshaping inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note pushed above 4.7% as oil broke $100, hitting a new high for the year. Market expectations for a Fed rate hike have surged—the probability of a hike next week has risen to about one-third, and a September hike is now fully priced in. The combination of rising inflation and rate hike expectations is the core driver behind the revaluation of risk assets.
Tariffs are adding further pressure to inflation. On the same day, the Trump administration announced a 10% or 12.5% tariff hike on goods from 60 trading partners. The "double whammy" of energy supply shocks and rising import costs is making the macro environment even more complex.
$797 Billion Wiped from Tech’s Magnificent Seven: The Double Blow of the AI Bubble and Rate Hike Fears
On July 24, the US tech "Magnificent Seven" index dropped 4.8%, erasing $797 billion in market value. Tesla plunged over 14%, its biggest one-day drop since March 2025; Google fell over 7%, with its market cap dropping below $4 trillion; Amazon slid over 4%, Meta more than 3%, Microsoft over 2%, and both Apple and Nvidia lost more than 1%.
This sell-off was driven by two factors. First, the geopolitical and oil price shock: the escalation in the Middle East sent international oil prices soaring, which in turn pushed up inflation and rate hike expectations, directly undermining the valuation logic of high-flying tech stocks. Second, doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures: Alphabet’s and Tesla’s quarterly results intensified concerns about the return on AI investments. Some tech giants saw free cash flow turn negative due to ballooning AI spending, prompting investors to question whether the "AI infinite investment" narrative is sustainable.
Notably, defense stocks and crypto mining stocks moved in the opposite direction. Lockheed Martin jumped over 10%, Raytheon Technologies gained more than 7%; crypto miners Cipher Digital rose over 5% and Hut 8 climbed more than 7%. This divergence clearly shows that the market isn’t simply "fleeing risk"—it’s repricing different asset classes based on their exposure to geopolitical conflict.
Why Bitcoin’s "Digital Gold" Narrative Fails in the Face of Real War
On July 24, Bitcoin traded near $65,000, down about 1.43% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum dropped to around $1,800. According to Coinglass, total liquidations across the market reached $251 million in the past 24 hours, with $189 million in long positions wiped out.
The "digital gold" narrative for Bitcoin—limited supply, decentralization, and global transferability, supposedly making it a store of value during war and inflation—is once again being put to the test. In reality, when conflict drives up inflation through energy prices and triggers tightening expectations, Bitcoin tends to come under pressure alongside other risk assets.
The root of this phenomenon is that Bitcoin’s asset profile remains in a "transitional state." In times of ample liquidity and moderate inflation, Bitcoin can be priced as "digital gold." But when conflict triggers a "full risk-off" environment, crypto assets quickly become highly correlated with the stock market. Bitcoin has neither gained a safe-haven premium like gold during geopolitical crises, nor has it been dumped as aggressively as traditional risk assets—this "in-between" state highlights that the market’s understanding of Bitcoin’s asset nature is still evolving.
On a deeper level, Bitcoin’s pricing logic has changed significantly in 2026. It increasingly tracks US equities—especially tech stocks—rather than acting as an independent hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. When both the AI bubble risks bursting and geopolitical shocks hit at the same time, Bitcoin faces double pressure: macro tightening expectations and declining risk appetite.
From Oil Prices to Liquidations: How Macro Panic Transmits to Crypto Market Leverage
The path by which geopolitical shocks transmit to the crypto market is clear and traceable.
Step 1: Energy shock. Houthi attacks on Red Sea oil tankers, combined with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, send Brent crude up 7% in a single day, breaking $100.
Step 2: Inflation expectations and rate hike repricing. Oil above $100 lifts inflation expectations, forcing the market to reprice the Fed’s rate path. The 10-year Treasury yield breaks 4.7%, and the probability of a July rate hike jumps to nearly 40%.
Step 3: Broad risk asset repricing. Higher risk-free rates directly compress valuations for high-multiple assets—whether Nasdaq tech stocks or Bitcoin. The Magnificent Seven shed $797 billion in market cap in a single day; the S&P 500 drops 1.21%.
Step 4: Crypto market leverage wipeout. Risk appetite collapses, Bitcoin breaks key support, and a wave of forced liquidations follows. In 24 hours, $251 million is liquidated across the market, with $189 million in long positions and over 80,000 traders affected. Bitcoin open interest drops 2.85%, indicating traders are exiting long positions.
The key to this transmission chain: leverage in the crypto market amplifies macro shocks. As rate hike expectations build and liquidity tightens, high-leverage long positions become the weakest link. Liquidations themselves further intensify selling pressure, creating a negative feedback loop.
When War Premiums Meet the AI Bubble: Crypto’s Double Pricing Dilemma
The crypto market now faces a rare "double squeeze."
The first squeeze comes from geopolitics. The US-Iran conflict shows no signs of cooling, with Trump "seriously considering" relaunching large-scale military action and both the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz at risk of closure. The war premium keeps pushing up energy prices and inflation expectations, squeezing the valuation space for risk assets.
The second squeeze comes from the unwinding of the AI bubble. The one-day plunge in the Magnificent Seven may not be a one-off, but rather the start of a broader market reassessment of AI investment returns. Given the high correlation between crypto and tech stocks, fading AI narratives directly drag down risk appetite for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.
The combined effect of these two squeezes is nonlinear. A single geopolitical shock might be digested by the market over time; a correction in the AI bubble could be a structural adjustment. But when both happen simultaneously and reinforce each other, the impact on crypto assets is exponential—rising oil prices lift rate hike expectations → rate hike expectations compress tech valuations → tech stocks fall, dragging down risk appetite → declining risk appetite triggers crypto liquidations → liquidations intensify selling, pushing prices lower.
In this environment, crypto assets can neither rely on the "digital gold" safe-haven narrative to hedge geopolitical risk, nor can they fully break free from tech stock valuation logic for independent pricing. This "caught in the middle" state could be the defining macro feature of the crypto market in the second half of 2026.
Conclusion
On the 13th day of the US-Iran conflict, Trump is considering relaunching large-scale military operations, Brent crude breaks $100 per barrel, and the Magnificent Seven tech stocks lose $797 billion in market cap in a single day. These events form a complete price transmission chain: geopolitical shock → energy supply disruption → oil price spike → rising inflation expectations → higher rate hike odds → risk asset repricing → crypto market leverage wipeout.
Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative has failed again in this conflict—it has not gained a safe-haven premium, nor has it broken free from its high correlation with tech stocks. When war premiums and the AI bubble unwind simultaneously, crypto assets face a dual squeeze from both geopolitics and valuation logic. How long this pattern lasts and where it leads will depend on the next developments in the Middle East and how the Fed responds to inflation pressures.
FAQ
Q: What does Brent crude breaking $100 mean for the crypto market?
A surge in oil prices lifts inflation expectations, forcing the market to reprice the Fed’s rate path—raising the odds of a rate hike. Higher risk-free yields suppress risk asset valuations, and as a high-beta asset class, crypto is often hit first. The $251 million in total liquidations on July 24 is a direct result of this transmission mechanism.
Q: Why didn’t Bitcoin rise like "digital gold" during the war?
Bitcoin’s "digital gold" narrative only holds under certain conditions—specifically, when conflict doesn’t trigger systemic inflation and tightening expectations. But when war drives up inflation via energy prices and triggers rate hike expectations, Bitcoin comes under pressure alongside other risk assets. In February 2026, during US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, gold rose while Bitcoin fell—this logic has been proven repeatedly.
Q: How is the Magnificent Seven’s market cap wipeout linked to crypto?
The correlation between crypto and tech stocks has risen significantly in 2026. The Magnificent Seven are the backbone of the US equity market, so a valuation correction there directly suppresses overall risk appetite. When the AI bubble unwinds and geopolitical conflict erupts simultaneously, crypto assets face double pressure—macro tightening and declining risk appetite.
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