山寨币多年来一直处于比特币的阴影之下。自2021年周期高点以来，山寨币的主导地位一直在稳步下降。
每次反弹尝试都以失败告终。每次突破都逐渐消退。资金不断流回比特币。对许多投资者来说，这感觉像是一场漫长的磨难，没有真正的喘息之机。
但现在，一张图表开始变得非常不同。
Crypto Patel 分享了一张长期的山寨币主导地位图表，显示出一条五年的下降趋势线即将突破。
更重要的是，在较高时间框架上的MACD即将出现看涨交叉，这与2020–2021年山寨币爆发前出现的信号相同。
观察这张图表，山寨币的主导地位自上一个周期高点以来一直遵循一条下行阻力线。每次主导地位逼近这条趋势线，卖盘就会出现。
现在，价格再次逼近它。结构显示出反复形成的更高低点接近支撑位，而阻力位保持平坦。
这种压缩非常重要。当一个市场在一条下行线下方积聚压力多年时，最终的突破可能会非常激烈。
图表甚至标出了2017年和2020年之前的“山寨季开始”区域。这两个时期都伴随着类似的压缩阶段。
来源：X/CryptoPatel
然而，在图表下方，MACD指标正逐渐走高。
在2017年和2020年，较高时间框架上的看涨MACD交叉与山寨币主导地位的突破同步发生。随后，山寨市场出现了大规模的扩张，许多币种实现了10倍到20倍的涨幅。
现在，MACD再次开始向上卷曲。
波动性已经收缩了数月。主导地位正处于一个关键的转折点附近。流动性似乎在当前水平之上逐步积累。这种布局并不保证会爆发，但从历史上看，这正是它们开始的方式。
_Pi Network 发布创纪录的增长指标，那么为什么Pi币的图表看起来死气沉沉？
然而，山寨币主导地位代表了加密市场总市值中分配到比特币之外的比例。当主导地位上升时，意味着资金正在向山寨币轮动。
多年来，比特币一直掌控着话语权。但如果主导地位突破这条五年的趋势线，意味着市场结构将发生转变。
这种转变被交易者称为“山寨季”。
它不会一夜之间发生。通常在市场情绪仍然持怀疑态度时悄然开始。
早还是晚？
这张图表并不承诺20倍的涨幅。市场不会完美重复。
但技术结构与之前周期的转折点相似。一个多年的下行趋势正在被测试。动能正在转变。压缩极端。
如果主导地位突破并保持在阻力位之上，资金向山寨币的轮动可能会迅速加快。在经历了五年的表现不佳后，山寨币再次站在了一个关键的决策点上。
这是否会成为下一次爆发的阶段，还是又一次假突破，取决于一件事：主导地位是否最终能突破那条长期的阻力线？
如果能，市场结构将发生变化。
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