#创作者冲榜 Gold plunges $525 in a single week, silver crashes nearly 16%, larger declines may be coming

As the conflict in Iran persists and energy prices remain elevated, markets are increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures reigniting, which may force major global central banks to pause their easing efforts and shift to prolonged observation.

Affected by this, gold has continued to suffer significant losses recently. After breaking below the 50-day moving average, a key technical support level, bearish sentiment in the market has intensified further. Multiple analysts warn that if Middle East conflicts continue to drag on and energy infrastructure suffers further damage, gold may face additional pain in the short term, with risks of even falling toward the lower end of the $4,000 range not being ruled out.

Gold price crashes $525, breaks key technical level, silver plummets nearly 16%

As Middle East warfare shows no clear end in sight, some analysts warn that gold investors may need to prepare for further market declines. The reason is that persistently rising energy prices are reigniting inflation threats, which could force major global central banks to abandon their original easing path and adopt a "wait-and-see" policy stance instead.

The gold market experienced significant technical breakdown this week. As gold prices pierced below the 50-day moving average, which sits slightly below $5,000 per ounce, the market chart structure has clearly deteriorated. Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Kitco News that Wednesday's breakdown decline and subsequent continued selling has brought the gold market to a critical turning point.

He points out that from a price structure perspective, the 23% rally from the February 2, 2026 low of $4,402 to the March 2 high of $5,420 now appears more like a "corrective bounce," or even a classic "dead cat bounce."

This suggests that gold's next phase could be more likely to shift toward a sustained bearish-driven decline lasting weeks. From a weekly perspective, gold fell $525.56 this week, a decline of 10.47%, marking the largest single-week drop since 1983. Since the conflict began, gold has accumulated a decline exceeding 14%. Recent market data shows gold once broke below $4,500, while the yearly high reached above $5,600.

By comparison, silver's decline has been even more severe. This week, silver prices are set to accumulate a decline of 15.67%, marking the largest drop since January's spike and pullback earlier this year. Spot silver is trading at $67.889 per ounce, down 6.74% intraday!

Middle East situation and the Strait of Hormuz become key variables for gold's next move

Analysts widely believe that gold's subsequent direction almost entirely depends on how the Middle East situation evolves and whether the Strait of Hormuz can resume normal operations, thereby easing global supply chain and energy price pressures.

Precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah stated in a recent report that while markets await further clarity on the Iran conflict, he expects gold prices to likely fluctuate between $4,600 and $4,700 in the short term, but also warns that downside risks are mounting. He points out that if energy assets suffer further damage and the conflict drags on longer, the end result could be gold prices falling toward the lower end of the $4,000 range per ounce. The reason is that in this scenario, even the Federal Reserve might be forced to re-hike rates due to persistently elevated energy prices.

However, he also emphasizes that this does not mean gold's long-term trend will weaken permanently. If energy infrastructure damage is limited and oil prices can quickly retreat to pre-war levels, global central banks' interest in purchasing gold may rekindle, driving gold prices back to the trajectory of long-term trading above $5,000.

Why doesn't gold act like a safe-haven asset during war?

Despite gold facing clear headwinds recently, many analysts remain optimistic about its medium and long-term prospects. Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy, expressed that investors' core logic for buying gold at the beginning of the year hasn't actually changed, as the global economy still faces unprecedented uncertainty, and geopolitical turmoil and government debt expansion issues remain unresolved.

However, he also points out that the current market needs to first experience a round of sentiment and position correction. In other words, investors need to first "cool down from their infatuation," and only then may they reignite enthusiasm for gold. For those who remain bullish on gold, they need to see evidence that the worst is over before they can have more confidence to re-enter. Analysts believe the main reason gold has failed to demonstrate traditional safe-haven strength in a war environment is the re-inflation threat brought by rising energy prices.

The core of current market trading is no longer just the geopolitical conflict itself, but how the conflict transmits through oil prices to inflation, interest rates, and monetary policy paths.

Central banks in full observation mode, yet markets have rapidly reversed rate-cut bets!

Over the past week, major global central banks have almost universally maintained rates unchanged and collectively entered a relatively neutral "observation mode" to wait and see what impact the conflict will have on inflation expectations. Haworth points out that the next four to six weeks will be an important observation window for various central banks, especially as businesses begin adjusting budget expectations before summer, policymakers will have a clearer view of whether energy shocks will materially affect business decisions and price behavior.

However, the market clearly has less patience. Investors have already begun rapidly rolling back their bets on Fed rate cuts within the year. Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodities research at Commerzbank, stated that in the United States, not even a single complete rate cut has been fully priced in by the end of the year. At the end of February, markets commonly expected the Fed to cut rates 2.5 times. She points out that following recent Fed meetings, rate-cut expectations have been further weakened, primarily because Fed Chair Powell repeatedly emphasized inflation risks and explicitly stated that if future signs show inflation cannot return to target levels in the medium term, further monetary easing will not be under consideration.

Against this backdrop, as long as energy prices continue rising and pushing up long-term inflation expectations, gold prices are likely to remain under downward pressure.

Gold's long-term bull market may not necessarily be ending, but short-term consolidation confirmation is needed

Although a hawkish Fed stance typically pressures gold by pushing up bond yields and the dollar, some analysts believe gold's long-term opportunities have not disappeared. Michael Brown, senior market analyst, stated that if central banks overfocus on inflation and inadvertently continue tightening policies in a recession environment, this itself could constitute a serious policy error. He points out that monetary policy has limited effectiveness against supply-driven inflation, and all central banks can typically do is slow economic growth by dampening demand.

Therefore, given the high uncertainty surrounding how long the Iran conflict will last and its economic impact, a "wait-and-see" strategy by central banks is actually the most logical approach. But if major central banks ultimately commit the policy error of "tightening during recession," gold could still perform well over a longer duration, as investors would then seek tools to hedge against economic downside risks.

Brown stated that he does not believe the gold bull market has ended, but at the current stage, the market first needs to experience a sufficient consolidation period before having better reasons to strengthen confidence in "buying the dips."