#比特币站上7.5万美元

1. BTC Standing Firm at $75,000 — A Signal to Charge Toward $80,000?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has recorded a rare 8-day consecutive rally with moderate volume expansion. The price has not only firmly established itself above $75,000 but also briefly touched the $76,000 level. This movement carries significant marker value — it represents an effective breakthrough of the strong resistance zone between $70,000-$73,000, which had previously suppressed multiple rebounds.

Currently, the daily MACD exhibits a golden cross with expanding positive histogram, indicating that bullish momentum has not yet weakened; the RSI indicator is positioned at 65-70, which while in a strong zone, has not entered overbought territory (above 80), suggesting there remains safe room for further upside. From a Fibonacci retracement perspective, once $75,000 (the 0.236 retracement level) is solidly held, technical traders' next target will be directly locked onto the $85,000-$93,000 range. The only near-term concern is selling pressure around $76,000, which has served as a resistance level where multiple rebounds have stalled in 2026; however, the overall trend has shifted to a bullish offensive pattern.

2. With the FOMC Meeting Approaching — Will Markets Reverse or Accelerate?

This represents the greatest uncertainty factor and the primary variable the technical picture faces in the near term. While markets broadly expect the Fed's interest rate decision on March 19 to remain unchanged (with an extremely high probability of no change), the risk lies in the updated "dot plot" and economic projections summary.

From a technical analysis standpoint, ahead of major macro events, markets typically experience either "increased volatility" or "liquidity contraction." Should the dot plot reveal further reduced expectations for rate cuts (hawkish), risk assets may face pressure, causing prices to retrace to support. However, on-chain data shows that enterprise-level buying (such as continued accumulation by Strategy) and continuous net inflows into spot ETFs provide the market with strong "technical absorptive capacity." Therefore, regardless of the meeting outcome, as long as price does not effectively breach $74,000 (the MA7 and strong support from the breakout platform), the current uptrend channel will not be destroyed, and a temporary dip could instead attract additional buying interest.

3. Operational Logic: Chase Higher or Take Profits?

Based on the aforementioned "bullish but facing macro variables" technical backdrop, the optimal strategy should be "buy dips rather than chase highs or blindly flee."

1. Long Logic: The daily MA7 (approximately $74,000) has now formed strong support, and the 4-hour Bollinger Band midline is also rising. For those without positions, this represents a "right-side trading" test point. Should price retrace to and steady at the $74,000-$74,500 zone, this offers an opportunity for a light long trial position, with stops set below $73,500, betting on continuation toward $76,500-$77,000.
2. Wait-and-See Logic: Since FOMC is the largest near-term variable, chasing higher around $76,000 offers poor risk-reward. Once aggressive pushes encounter resistance (such as a stalling candle near $76,000), the near term may first retrace and accumulate power.
3. Warning Signal: Despite the sharp rally, market sentiment remains in "extreme fear" territory (23). This divergence between price-volume and sentiment indicates many investors have missed out. Only when sentiment shifts to euphoria and RSI breaks 80 should one become cautious of a cyclical top.

Summary: BTC has achieved a technical breakout, but the $76,000 level combined with the FOMC meeting may intensify near-term volatility. Rather than guessing whether the $80,000 level can be reached in one shot, it's better to keep close watch on $74,000 as the short-term bullish-bearish dividing line — maintain a bullish mindset above this level, and shift to defense if broken. ETH shows even stronger momentum, but similarly requires confirmation of resistance around $2,400.