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What's terrifying upon reflection is that $crcl such a good stock could actually give another chance at the opening price?
Looking back on this journey, making money really isn't easy:
1. Built a position at 60+, wrote 9 articles in succession. I felt I had thoroughly understood this target and there was nothing more I needed to learn about it.
2. From 60 to 90, it started to pull back. I kept buying on the way up, averaging at 72. When it dropped to 75, due to an extremely large position size, I reduced it according to crypto style to a comfortable level I could hold long-term.
3. During the decline, when it fell below 60, I started buying back in—at this point fear was still very heavy, the market was full of curses and mockery, with me becoming the focus of ridicule. Multiple articles questioning why not to be bullish on CRCL and similar content started appearing.
When I bought in, because I understood it, I thought: okay, what you're saying could also be right. It really could drop to 30. But the incident of Duan Shen going heavy on Apple and it dropping 50% always weighed on my mind, so I was very tolerant of my own risk management. If it drops 50%, so be it—I bought.
Actually, my decision at 66000 to complete my Bitcoin position at the same time came from the same thinking—you all say it will go to 30000, so 30000 it is. I'll buy first. The foolish person uses foolish methods.
I actually experienced this cycle once before with HYPE. I was very bullish on HYPE, went heavy at 20+, it rose close to 40, then dropped back. I reduced position near the original price. Later, around 13, when the market was very pessimistic and everyone thought 5 was possible, but I thought it was good enough. I also bought back in.
But the tragedy, the script is the same as HYPE—identical script: whether HYPE or CRCL, the position I repurchased was never as large as before. While not small either, in absolute terms, just holding it still would have made the most.
But I think from several angles:
One is that my cognition can only hold this much. Any more and it becomes betting my life for me. If I'm going to gamble with my life, eventually one time I'll lose.
Two is that I've achieved the highest proficiency with my approach of never losing principal. So getting off is smooth, getting on is also decisive—it's hard to truly get shaken off.
Overall, not perfect, but I've learned to be content.