Cựu kinh tế trưởng của Fed New York: Ưu tiên hàng đầu là kiểm soát lạm phát, nhưng Fed sẽ không tăng lãi suất trong năm nay

Natixis’ chief economist for the Americas, Christopher Hodge (formerly the chief economist of the New York Federal Reserve) said that inflation will be the top concern for the Federal Reserve for the rest of 2026, but that does not mean monetary policy will shift immediately; his base case includes a “prolonged pause” throughout 2026, under which the Federal Reserve led by Warsh (沃什) will continue to hold interest rates unchanged.

Hodge’s inflation assessment: housing accounts for 35%, and core momentum is not clearly heating up

Based on Hodge’s analysis, the key macro data supporting the view of “no rate hikes in 2026” are as follows: housing, which carries roughly a 35% weight in the CPI, is the single largest factor affecting the inflation trajectory; and real-time indicators suggest that housing inflation over the next few months may remain benign and even slightly soften. Meanwhile, wage growth of about 3% to 3.5% is consistent with an inflation target of around 2% and shows no sign of secondary inflation pressure stemming from wages.

Hodge emphasized that price pressures over the past two years have largely come from exogenous factors such as tariffs and energy shocks. The Federal Reserve needs to distinguish “temporary exogenous shocks” from “domestically driven inflation momentum,” and at present the latter has not shown signs of clearly heating up. A rate increase in July “is not in the current context,” because “if it doesn’t happen in June, then it won’t happen in July.”

Potential policy constraint from Warsh’s hawkish stance: the risk in the scenario of two CPI prints higher than expected

According to Hodge’s warning, if Warsh is overly hawkish early in his tenure, it could create policy constraints in the future—if the next two CPI readings are both higher than expected, the open question is whether the Federal Reserve would then take action due to the earlier stance being too rigid.

Hodge also noted that throughout his career, Warsh has generally leaned hawkish. His recent remarks look more like a “return to his default stance” than a move to demonstrate independence from President Trump. Warsh has shown a more “dovish” side in two times he competed for the Fed chair role in 2017 and 2025, but Hodge believes this was akin to different messaging to different audiences. Hodge said recent statements may indeed create some friction between Warsh and his colleagues, but in terms of long-term positioning it is still a “return to the mean.”

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does Hodge predict the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2026?

Hodge’s core argument is that housing inflation (35% of CPI) in the coming months could continue to stay moderate; wage growth (3%–3.5%) aligns with the 2% inflation goal; and since the June FOMC meeting, core PCE has come in better than expected, oil prices have fallen again, and non-farm employment data has been weaker than expected—all of which do not support raising interest rates. Until there is clearer understanding of how exogenous shocks like tariffs and energy are transmitted into core inflation, staying on the sidelines is more cautious. This is Hodge’s personal forecast and does not constitute investment advice.

Why is Warsh’s hawkish stance considered a potential risk?

According to Hodge’s warning, if Warsh’s hardline stance early in his tenure pushes market expectations too high, then when the next two CPI readings are both higher than expected, the Federal Reserve could face pressure to raise rates. Monthly data can swing significantly, and in a context where hawkish expectations are stronger, if inflation ticks up again, the open question is whether the Federal Reserve can still choose not to raise rates. This is Hodge’s personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice.

How does Hodge assess the trend of global central banks increasing gold purchases and de-dollarization?

According to Hodge’s explanation, the 2022 war in Ukraine served as a catalyst that drove many countries to accelerate de-dollarization and increase gold purchases, but uncertainty in U.S. policy—especially in trade policy and sanctions—is the fundamental reason that sustains this trend over the long run. A more common model is that USD positions are “no longer being rolled over,” like a kind of “quiet retreat,” rather than an outright sell-off of USD assets. Hodge believes the U.S. private sector’s resilience will continue to support the dollar, but demand for official assets could soften slightly.