Prithvir

vip
Age 2.3 Yıl
Peak Tier 0
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frontier models are becoming veblen goods
the marginal gain from “thinking-max” over “thinking-high” is tiny
the marginal cost difference is not
this is getting insane
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Has anyone built an Etherscan or Arkham style block explorer for LLM CoT reasoning traces?
Would do wonders for mechanistic interpretability
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How many years before the first AI finance ministers and central bankers?
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teammate just sent me a localhost url of a "banger dashboard" he built with claude
ama
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Superintelligence doubling time = ~3 years (conservative, following the trendline)
That's 24% annual GDP growth.
Even if bad policy -- deficit spending, money printing, regulatory capture -- cuts that in half:
12% GDP growth.
For context: the US has never sustained above 8%.
The world will be *unrecognizable* by 2030
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"Bushido is found in the act of dying."
"Fall seven times, stand up eight."
"Imperturbable and free of thoughts."
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Expending all of our resources to train agi on computer science objectives will seem insanely skeuomorphic in hindsight.
AGI's utility in the physical world will dwarf its digital utility by multiple orders of magnitude
The real upside is in physical systems- robotics, energy, manufacturing.
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Looking to fund up to 10 PM traders
$10k referral if your candidate is selected
DMs open
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Exponential job loss won’t come from ai alone.
It will come from ai-augmented offshore workers.
AI makes offshore workers faster and more effective.
They still cost less.
White-collar onshore workers are in trouble.
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The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.
- USA, 2026
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Software loans yields exploding to 12% while broad leveraged loans sit at 8.5%.
lenders smell blood as AI murders legacy SaaS.
Refinancing wall incoming.
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pre claude: backend devs get 3 months. frontend devs get 2 weeks.
post claude: backend gets 2 weeks. frontend gets 1 week.
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the most underappreciated chart in the world right now
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agi will be deflationary. productive output will rise. goods and services will get cheaper.
a barbell strategy for market cap accretion will start to appear.
end1: hyper-financialization
when people have more time and don't have to worry about food, clothing, and shelter they turn towards financial status games.
we will continue to see explosive growth in instruments that price short-term uncertainty:
• perps
• prediction markets
• options
• spot speculation
• sweepstakes-style trading
the moats here are liquidity network effects, and lock-in similar to the sunk cost from time spent upleveli
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Vibe coding is like trading with 10x leverage
If your vibe-coded app somehow manages to hit
• strong K-factor growth and
• smiling retention curves
You'll probably accumulate tech debt. Three possible solutions:
1. Service the interest
Keep shipping. Pay absurd bills to AWS, Vercel, and others because the system was never designed properly.
2. Pay down the principal
Refactor the stack at a large opportunity cost. Engineering cadence slows, competitors ship, and piranha-fish your user base.
3. Refinance the debt
Hire and deploy engineer + agent combinations whose job is continuously untangling
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No second date, but at least she understands the nuances of prop AMM microstructure and Black–Scholes models for prediction markets.
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Margin debt just hit a new all-time high.
Yes, historically this signals we’re late in the cycle.
But it also reveals something structural.
Leverage compresses time horizons.
When positions are financed with debt, risk must be managed continuously.
That is why the fastest growing instruments today are:
• 0DTE options in equities
• perpetual futures in crypto
• prediction markets for real-world events
They all price short-term uncertainty.
As leverage rises, demand shifts toward markets that clear quickly and settle quickly.
Perps, 0DTE, and prediction markets are the natural endpoint of that e
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do you trade equities, commodities, and indices onchain?
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