ChenJiaguanA

BTC below 69-68k is the level with the most accumulated chips from this uptrend
The liquidation of 390 million+ short positions in 24 hours has clearly become much more moderate
The bulls' 8-day offensive accumulation was completely washed away in a single day yesterday
It feels like the market hasn't been shaken out yet
Short positions at high levels can continue to hold and observe
Tonight when US stocks open, there will be a rise followed by another drop

BTC still cannot sustain above this high zone for more than a day or two. Currently, it is testing the top of the range again after a full reversal. This time, it has indeed filled the CME gap left over the weekend. The FOMC meeting is approaching in a few hours. This is an important area and worth paying attention to.

Today is FOMC day
The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged
and this situation is likely to continue for some time
overall
a full rate cut is not fully priced in until 2026
so this probably won't be a widely discussed topic this year
personally I'm curious about Powell's take on the rise in oil prices
and if the conflict continues for a while
how this might influence their decision-making

ETH successfully returned above the 0.03 level
This is a rather critical position in the short term
It consolidated within that small range for approximately 6 weeks as we saw
Now focus on the 0.032 area
As a high timeframe level that needs to hold firm (Chen Jiaguan)

How far along is the bear market?
We're currently at around August 2022 levels
There are 6-12 months remaining until the next bull market begins
Hold steady, we can win this (Chen Jiaguan)

BTC 4H
The final push aims for 80K
Consolidation and upward movement at the key major resistance zone
75K is a critical divergence point
Break above and head toward 78K-80K
If the break below 75K fails, this rebound will end
4H remains in an uptrend
If the bears keep shorting but can't push it down
Once it breaks through, acceleration will follow (Chen Jiaguan)

The weekly chart has shown three consecutive green candles now.
It's slowly climbed back to around 74k from just over 60k.
Overall, this is the rhythm of a weak bounce.
The current price just broke above the 5-day moving average.
It's temporarily escaped the previous panic selloff.
But the 10-day moving average is still sitting around 74,800.
It's quite difficult to push higher.
These past few days have basically been bouncing between 73,000 and 76,000.
The fluctuations aren't that large.
The major players haven't really pushed hard.
Volume hasn't expanded much either.
This indicates everyone

Past week
Some altcoins experienced some volatility
AI-related coins became the big winners again
Worth paying attention to this sector
And consider buying strong coins on pullbacks
However
Still hoping to see BTC and ETH make a real breakout from the current range before paying more attention to altcoins
This would give them more room for rebound (Chen Jiaguan)

BTC 4H
Approaching 78K
Oscillating upward
Reaching a key level suitable for partial profit-taking on long positions
Still waiting for an obvious acceleration climax and reversal pattern
Long positions still need to wait (Chen Jiaguang)

BTC's Third Attempt at a Breakout
To have real confidence in the uptrend,
I hope to see it stabilize above the local high of 74K for at least one or two days
The air here is quite thin
Because the decline has been very rapid
The CME gap is still at 84K
This will be a level that could potentially be touched
As long as the breakout can be sustained

From a technical standpoint on BTC:
After the futures market reopened today, it left a small gap.
Worth paying attention to.
If the price starts to enter that area,
this level roughly aligns with the range high point as well.
So as always,
the price doesn't necessarily have to reach there,
but if it does,
it's usually worth watching
because it could become a local reversal zone. (Chen Jiaguang) ​​​

On the 13th, I posted a reminder about the 70k strong support.
Over the weekend, I also reminded about the resistance.
This morning around 71.7, I reminded again to continue strengthening.
Next is to watch the 74k resistance.
By afternoon, the market arrived as expected at 74.4k.
Currently hovering below 74k.
Although bull momentum has weakened somewhat, it hasn't been exhausted.
The bearish counterattack wasn't as sharp as imagined.
The follow-up observation still focuses on the performance at the 74k resistance zone.
Bears still need to wait for an opportunity.

BTC's Coinbase premium has risen
especially over the past week
the premium has remained stable
this could be due to accumulation from strategies and spot ETFs
typically
this indicates healthier market conditions than when the Coinbase premium shows significant discounts like we saw during sell-offs

The daily chart has already had seven consecutive positive days
The bearish expectations might be too strong
Continuously squeezing higher, unable to break down?
Everyone is repeating the June 2022 market scenario
But it's also possible we're replicating the July 2022 market
Gradually squeezing higher, knocking out longs, stopping losses
Still watching for an opportunity to take action around 74k ​​​

The current 4H level is in a typical bull exhaustion phase: the moving average crossover has confirmed a death cross, and the MACD has also formed a death cross accompanied by increased volume in the histogram, indicating that short-term momentum is clearly exhausted.
Although the oversold condition of the KDJ indicator suggests a technical rebound demand, historical patterns show that under this death cross and volume expansion scenario, rebounds are mainly corrective and unlikely to develop into a sustained upward trend.
If the price stabilizes at this level, a rebound toward the 72k res

In 2026, BTC spot ETF inflows overall haven't shown significant changes.
However, I have no doubt that in the coming years, we will see cumulative ETF inflows exceed the $100B+ level.
As for whether the price will follow the same trajectory, I believe it's only a matter of time. Every dollar these ETFs absorb from larger OG sellers or short-term traders builds a more solid and diversified supply base and foundation for the long term.
2025 is a perfect example of this. We saw ETF inflows exceed $20B+, while BTC was nearly in decline by year-end. Obviously, from a price movement perspective, thi