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1. Intraday Trading Discipline: Systematic decision-making, mechanical execution
1. Do not place orders lightly at support and resistance levels on small timeframes; observe how the price reacts at these levels (e.g., sign

The Iran situation is only a short-term boost for the dollar; once geopolitical risks subside, a reversal to a downward trend is likely.
Supported by inflation concerns triggered by the Iran war, the dollar remains close to its year-high reached in March. Recent data shows that the U.S. economy remains resilient, which also supports the dollar.
Currently, inflation remains sticky, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates significantly. This is favorable for the dollar but ultimately only a short-term driver. From a broader structural perspective, once the geopolitical pr

The United States has only one path left: money printing!
Will gold inevitably reach new highs again?
U.S. national debt has hit a historic milestone of $39 trillion and continues to grow at an astonishing rate. James Lavish, a seasoned macro investor and fund manager with decades of global market navigation experience, points directly to the core issue: the current market uncertainty is unprecedented.
“Honestly, this is one of the most difficult markets I’ve ever invested in,” Lavish admitted. “I’ve experienced many so-called once-in-a-century events: the collapse of Long-Term Capital Managem

Spot gold has found some support, and investors seem to be convinced...
On Monday, spot gold in Asian trading hovered around the $4,600 mark and rebounded, but subsequent buying interest was weak. Bloomberg, citing Axios, reported that the US, Iran, and regional mediators are discussing a possible 45-day ceasefire, which could lead to an end to fighting. This news suppressed safe-haven demand for the dollar, providing some support for gold prices.
The outlook for rising global interest rates limits the upside potential for non-yielding gold. Investors seem to be convinced that the war-driven s

The market is trying to price an nonexistent endgame; volatility is coming but not today — three key points to watch for today’s crude oil:
1. Market Review: Last Friday, due to Good Friday, the US, multiple European countries, Australia, and Hong Kong stock exchanges were closed for the day. The CME Group’s precious metals, US crude oil, forex, and stock index futures contracts, as well as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Brent crude futures, were all suspended for the entire day.
2. Key Indicators: Recently, Trump has chosen to extend the critical negotiation window in talks with Iran rather

Gold has found a short-term foothold, but the macro background remains full of challenges—three key points for gold and silver to watch today:
1. Market Review: Last Friday, due to Good Friday, the US, multiple European countries, Australia, and the Hong Kong Securities Exchange were all closed for one day, and all precious metals under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), US crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts, as well as Brent crude oil futures contracts under Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), were suspended from trading for the entire day.
2. Key Indicators: The

JPMorgan: If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the recovery of oil supply will go through three major stages, taking approximately......
If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the market will experience a rapid but uneven normalization process, with price adjustments in financial markets occurring much faster than physical logistics. The market will price in not only the resumption of navigation but also the full return to normal supply conditions, which in practice will take several months to achieve. Currently, supply disruptions have caused a daily loss of 12.3 million barrels, and this loss is expec

4.6 Market Analysis and Specific Trading Strategies
I. Overall Market Judgment
Qingming holiday + Wall Street long weekend, market backlog of 3 days of risk aversion sentiment and geopolitical conflicts are bearish factors. On Monday open, there is likely to be a concentrated release of these emotions. Historical patterns show a higher probability of gap-downs or sharp declines.
BTC and ETH have begun to decline gradually; observe whether the downward trend transmits from smaller to larger timeframes. It could be "the last drop," aiming to shake out panic sellers, with short-term profit-taki

Is the "Head and Shoulders" pattern in gold emerging? Three signals point to the same target
Technical formations, actual yields, support and resistance levels converge, making this rare triple alignment. If gold completes the right shoulder formation, the mid-range of $6,000 may no longer be just a dream...
On Tuesday, gold prices broke through the $4,400 per ounce consolidation zone and moved up to around $4,700 (plus or minus $100). This area overlaps with the support/resistance level formed by 1.65 times the 3-year moving average of gold prices. After this consolidation near the zone ends,

Trump's one sentence hits back to the original form, why is the market so easily fooled? --- Master Charles P. Kindleberger review
A single news report dares the market to bet on a ceasefire, but a single "still fighting for two to three weeks" from Trump immediately restores the original reality. This article breaks down how "hope trading" tricks people in.
Title: The Bubble of Hope, the Iron Hammer of Reality! Kindleberger: 72 Hours of Frenzy and Panic.
This week, global macro traders experienced a "limit-pushing" event worthy of a place in financial psychology history. In just 72 hours, the

Berenberg Bank: "Blonde Girl" Expelled by Trump, Is the Fed's Rate Cut Only the Last One?
Trump has expelled the "blonde girl" economy: Without immigration to support U.S. growth through expanding the labor force, productivity growth must bear all the responsibilities. However, the current environment—unfriendly to business, with tariffs and uncertainty—is unlikely to produce productivity growth above 2%.
Based on this environment, we believe there is limited room for the Fed to cut rates further. We expect it to cut by 25 basis points at the June 17, 2026 meeting, which will be the last, brin

GBP Outlook: The interest-rate differential logic is showing signs of fatigue, and the risk balance has tilted toward the short side
Baseline scenario: Range-bound trading with a generally weak tone. GBP/USD continues to trade within the 1.3200 to 1.3500 range, but with a slight downward bias. The Bank of England’s rate-hike expectations can still provide some support, but as the market questions the sustainability of rate hikes in a weak-growth environment, this momentum starts to fade. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains relatively firm.
Bullish scenario: Clear trigger factors are needed. F

The Shadow of Stagflation in the UK Economy: Why Is the Pound Struggling to Maintain Its Current Resilience?
Driven more by geopolitical concerns than domestic factors, the pound experienced another week of decline, leading to a second consecutive week of fall against the US dollar. Meanwhile, market participants currently expect the Bank of England not to resume rate cuts this year. Instead, the market has priced in approximately 50 basis points of rate hikes by the end of the year.
Although the pound has performed relatively well recently, underlying vulnerabilities are beginning to emerge.

Non-farm payrolls data exceeds expectations, supporting the US dollar; next week, the Federal Reserve minutes and CPI will be focal points
The US released its non-farm payroll report on Friday, showing 178k new jobs added. Additionally, February data was revised from an initial estimate of a 92k decrease to a 133k decrease. The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, while the labor force participation rate slightly declined from 62% to 61.9%. Finally, wage pressures eased, with the average hourly earnings year-over-year growth rate dropping from 3.8% in February to 3.5%. The report, amid th