Trump ordered the sinking of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and Bitcoin’s rebound momentum weakened to 78k

On April 24, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks. On the same day, he also ordered the U.S. Navy to “sink any ships that are laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz,” and instructed the military to carry out mine-clearing operations with “three times the force.” Brent crude spot prices have returned above $100, while Bitcoin is trading under pressure and consolidating around $78,000.

Key Middle East Situation Statement Record

According to a post published by Trump on Truth Social on April 24, the representatives of the three parties in the U.S.-Israel-Lebanon discussions held a high-level meeting at the White House that “went very smoothly.” The ceasefire agreement will be extended by three weeks. Trump said he is looking forward to hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

According to an official Israeli statement, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said on April 23, after the conclusion of a situation assessment, that Israel is prepared to restart a war with Iran, “only waiting for the United States’ green light.”

Citing a report by Iran’s Mehr News Agency, Reuters said Tehran heard voices that air-defense systems are “intercepting hostile targets,” and the capital’s air-defense system was activated at one point. Separately, according to a report from Iran’s Fars News on April 23, news about Iran charging encrypted cryptocurrency for tolls through the Strait of Hormuz is “inaccurate.”

Reports about whether Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf might withdraw from the negotiating team had not been fully confirmed as of the time of publication.

According to a report from Fox News on April 23, Trump said he would not set a separate deadline for the negotiations. Both sides claim they are willing to negotiate, but there are disagreements about resolving the issue of the naval blockade.

Oil Market and Bitcoin Spot Status Data

According to market trading data, Brent crude spot prices have returned above $100 per barrel, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is close to stalling.

According to data from Farside Investors, last week U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $996.5 million, and since then fund flows have continued to remain positive. As of the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at about $77,900, with a 24-hour trading range of $77,456 to $79,468.

According to Glassnode data, among recent buyers, more than half have taken profits, with profit-reversal amounts exceeding $4.4 million per hour—higher than the $1.5 million level of the previous local market high. This makes it the second-largest short-term investor profit-taking scale since January of this year. Glassnode also noted that the average cost of short-term holders is about $80,100, which is a key resistance zone Bitcoin is currently facing.

CME FedWatch Interest Rate Expectation Data

According to CME FedWatch data, the market assigns a 99.5% probability to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) keeping rates unchanged in April. The probabilities for keeping rates unchanged in June and July are 95.8% and 91.7%, respectively. The probability of no rate cuts before the end of the year is 74.8%.

According to congressional hearing records, Fed chair candidate Kevin Warsh emphasized in recent hearings the central bank’s independence, while Trump has continued to publicly call for rate cuts.

Institutional Assessment: Bitfinex Weekly Report and QCP Capital Market Judgment

According to a weekly report released by Bitfinex on April 22, mid-term market positions are relatively stable. As exchange fund flows decrease and large investors continue to add positions, structural demand continues to absorb supply; ETF fund flows have shifted to net positive. Bitfinex also said that in the near term, geopolitical risks and positioning in the derivatives market could exacerbate downside volatility.

According to QCP Capital’s public statement, the firm believes Bitcoin’s recent rebound is “more like a release of risk-hedging sentiment rather than being driven by market confidence.” Open interest has begun to rise again, but the funding rate remains negative, indicating that the market still favors short positions. QCP Capital said that as long as oil prices stay high and uncertainty in monetary policy persists, the upside room for risk assets may remain limited.

Frequently Asked Questions

What specific statements did Trump make about the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz?

According to Trump’s public statement on April 24, he ordered the U.S. Navy to “sink any ships that are laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz,” and instructed the military to continue mine-clearing operations with “three times the force.” On the same day, Trump announced on Truth Social that the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon has been extended by three weeks.

How did fund flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs change over the past week?

According to Farside Investors data, last week U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $996.5 million. Since then, fund flows have continued to stay positive, indicating a rebound in institutional demand.

What do CME FedWatch data show about market expectations for the FOMC’s rate decision in the near term?

According to CME FedWatch data, the market expects a 99.5% probability that the FOMC will keep rates unchanged in April. The probabilities for keeping rates unchanged in June and July are 95.8% and 91.7%, respectively. The probability of no rate cuts before the end of the year is 74.8%.