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#十二月降息预测
Key Economic Data: The December Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and inflation data (CPI/PCE) will be crucial in determining the Fed's next move. If the data shows that the job market is not as weak as expected or inflation rebounds, the probability of a rate cut could quickly drop, triggering market volatility.
• The Fed's Official Guidance: In addition to any rate cut decisions, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials’ rate forecasts for 2026, influencing market expectations for a long-term easing cycle. Its significance is no less than a single rate cut.
• Internal Crypto Market Factors: The crypto market operates on its own logic. For example, the launch of the Dogecoin spot ETF introduces new variables, but its massive trading volume coincides with whale addresses selling off, putting high-leverage positions at risk of liquidation. This highlights the need for investors to be aware of structural risks within the crypto space.