#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) and inflation data (CPI/PCE) for December will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or inflation rebounds, the probability of interest rate cuts may quickly decline, leading to market volatility.

• The Federal Reserve's official guidance: In addition to whether interest rates will be cut, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' forecasts for interest rates in 2026, which will affect the market's judgment on the long-term easing cycle, its importance is no less than a single rate cut.

• Internal factors in the crypto space: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin spot ETF has introduced new variables, but its massive trading volume coexists with the selling behavior of "whale" addresses, leading to liquidation risks for high-leverage positions, which reminds investors to pay attention to the structural risks within the crypto space.