#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) and inflation data (CPI/PCE) for December will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or that inflation is rebounding, the probability of interest rate cuts may quickly decline, triggering market volatility.

• The Federal Reserve's official guidance: In addition to whether interest rates will be cut, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' predictions for interest rates in 2026, which will affect the market's judgment on the long-term easing cycle, and is as important as a single rate cut.

• Internal Factors in the Crypto Market: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin spot ETF has introduced new variables, but its enormous trading volume coincides with the sell-off behavior of "whale" addresses, leading to high leverage positions facing liquidation risks, which reminds investors to pay attention to the structural risks within the crypto market.