#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) for December and inflation data (CPI/PCE) will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or that inflation rebounds, the probability of rate cuts may quickly decline, triggering market turbulence.

• The official guidance from the Federal Reserve: In addition to whether there will be a rate cut, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' predictions for interest rates in 2026, which will influence the market's judgment on the long-term easing cycle, and its significance is on par with a single rate cut.

• Internal factors of the cryptocurrency market: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin spot ETF has introduced new variables, but its huge trading volume coincides with the selling behavior of "whale" addresses, resulting in high leverage positions facing liquidation risks, which reminds investors to pay attention to the structural risks within the cryptocurrency market.