
The XRP derivatives market is currently undergoing a significant deleveraging reset. According to CryptoQuant data, XRP’s estimated leverage ratio on Binance has drastically decreased from around 0.59 to the current approximately 0.13, a drop of 78%, marking the lowest level in nearly nine months. Meanwhile, data from Artemis Analytics shows that the weekly transaction volume on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) has surged to 19 million transactions.
(Source: CryptoQuant)
CryptoQuant’s estimated leverage ratio indicator is calculated by dividing the open interest volume on exchanges by the token reserves, reflecting the average leverage level in the market. The sharp decline in the indicator suggests that most high-leverage speculative positions have been closed or liquidated, substantially alleviating the market’s “overloaded” state. The open interest volume of XRP on Binance is currently about $375 million, far below the peak level of the past year.
CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted: “The main conclusion is that speculative pressure has significantly eased. The overheating in Binance’s XRP derivatives market has considerably reduced, which may create a clearer environment for its next significant move.”
From a market structure perspective, a low-leverage environment theoretically lays the groundwork for a healthier price trend—if there is a subsequent price increase, its driving force is more likely to reflect real demand rather than speculative leverage, thus reducing systemic risks of cascading liquidations.
The significant rebound in XRPL transaction volume is supported by several recent specific business developments from Ripple:
Ripple Payments Platform Fully Upgraded: Earlier this month, Ripple expanded Ripple Payments into a fully integrated end-to-end payment platform, enhancing the breadth of use cases in the cross-border payments sector.
Mastercard Crypto Partner Program: Mastercard has included Ripple in its cryptocurrency partner program, marking further deepening of Ripple’s institutional penetration within the traditional financial ecosystem.
Emerging Market Licensing Layout: Ripple is actively pursuing business license applications in Brazil and Australia, laying a regulatory foundation for the geographic expansion of its cross-border payment business.
These cumulative developments are seen by analysts as core catalysts driving a simultaneous rebound in investor attention and on-chain activity. The structural growth in on-chain transaction volume is believed to help lay a more solid fundamental foundation for the sustainability of price recovery.
Despite positive signals in both the fundamentals and derivatives market, there are undeniable short-term pressures at the technical level. BeInCrypto’s latest technical analysis indicates that XRP is currently facing a concerning head and shoulders pattern, with confirmation of the bullish or bearish direction still pending.
The key to maintaining a bullish pattern lies in whether XRP can hold the support area between $1.37 and $1.40. If this support level is breached, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern will become a focal point technically, with analysts estimating a potential technical retracement of around 16%. In other words, there is a certain divergence between the current improvement in fundamentals and the weak technical chart, and direction confirmation will require waiting for subsequent price action validation.
The sharp decline in leverage ratio means that most high-leverage speculative positions have been closed, significantly alleviating overheating pressure in the market. In a low-leverage environment, the risk of cascading liquidations is reduced, and the market structure becomes more stable. If there is a subsequent price increase, its driving force is more likely to reflect real demand rather than speculative leverage.
Data from Artemis Analytics shows that the weekly transaction volume on the XRPL has soared to 19 million transactions, the highest since early 2025. Major catalysts include the end-to-end platform upgrade of Ripple Payments, Mastercard including Ripple in its crypto partner program, and Ripple actively seeking business licenses in Brazil and Australia.
BeInCrypto analysis indicates that XRP currently exhibits a head and shoulders top pattern, with key support levels at $1.37 to $1.40. If this support level is breached, the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern technically points to a potential retracement of about 16%, and investors should closely monitor the support situation in this price range.