TradFi Fall Alert: USDHUF (US Dollar vs Hungarian Forint) Falls Over 0.5%

ECB Likely to Hike by 25bp in June, Possibly Only Once This Year, Economists Survey Shows

Economists anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank in June 2026, primarily due to rising energy prices linked to the Iran conflict. While inflation is expected to peak at 2.8%, it should moderate in subsequent years, alongside muted economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone. The ECB remains cautious about potential future hikes amid uncertain geopolitical conditions.

Southbound Funds Record Net Inflows Exceeding HKD 10 Billion

Gate News message, April 17 — Southbound funds through Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded net inflows exceeding HKD 10 billion as of today.

熱錢湧進台灣！新台幣匯率強升逾 1.2%，創近一個半月新高

This week's strong rebound of the New Taiwan Dollar was driven by significant foreign investment in the Taiwan stock market. The exchange rate rose to a 1.29% increase, reaching a recent high. However, the central bank is monitoring these changes to prevent excessive appreciation affecting export competitiveness.

Hong Kong Interbank Rates Rise Across All Tenors; One-Month HIBOR Climbs to 2.55%

On April 17, Hong Kong interbank offered rates (HIBOR) increased across all tenors, with the one-month rate rising to 2.55143% and overnight rates hitting the highest level since January at 3.36536%.

Former Treasury Secretary Paulson: Contingency plan for a U.S. debt crisis must be prepared in advance; consequences will be very severe

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson urged U.S. authorities to draw up contingency plans to address a potential collapse in demand for U.S. national debt when he was interviewed by Bloomberg on April 17, 2026 (Thursday). He said that once a crisis erupts, the consequences would be extremely severe. On the same day, the U.S. Department of the Treasury completed the largest debt buyback in a single transaction in history, accepting approximately $15 billion in old bonds maturing from 2026 to 2028.

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Warns of the Risk of a “U.S. Treasury Crash”; Federal Reserve Trader: The Real Threat Is a Collapse of the Dollar

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson reminded the U.S. to develop a debt-crisis contingency plan in advance to deal with a potential collapse in U.S. Treasury securities. He worries that the fiscal deficit will form a “death spiral,” with debt possibly reaching 108% of GDP by 2030. But former Federal Reserve trader Wang believes a Treasury crisis will not occur; the real threat is a collapse of the U.S. dollar’s credit and runaway inflation. Although the two viewpoints differ, both point out that U.S. fiscal risk will ultimately show up.